foreign notes

The rich get richer, the poor get poorer

2012-02-13T16:55:00.004+02:00

The sober-minded 'Kommersant' newspaper reports:

"IMF warns of a hidden threat - Reduction of budget deficit recommended for Ukraine

Regeneration of the Ukrainian economy is in danger, warns the International Monetary Fund.

This can be avoided only by tightening fiscal policy - in particular, higher taxes and gas prices, as well as a transition to a floating exchange rate.

The recommendations of the IMF have become much tougher, since a deterioration in the payments balance in Ukraine has become apparent, experts admit."

Cf. Yanukovych's super-luxury A-319 Airbus with marble and gold bathroom fittings etc. etc...[photos here ] - cost $90m...Not that he will be using it much..now he is being shunned by western leaders..

Oh, and no more IMF credits without improvements in democratic standards...

Bribes transcript: "We are working for the president. I don't care about anything else.."

2012-02-12T23:04:00.009+02:00

On one of the last days of 2011, 'Den' reported: "... Roman Zabzaliuk quit the [BYuT] fraction. ...This news was a shock both for his colleagues in the party and many journalists. Unlike a lot of his colleagues, Zabzaliuk honestly spent the whole summer near the Pechersk Court [where Yulia Tymoshenko was being tried]. In the parliament he was thought to be close to Turchynov and Kozhemiakin. In the political environment they thought that if his friend headed the fraction, Zabzaliuk would quickly come out on top. Some even predicted that he could become the deputy head of the fraction.

“Roman Zabzaliuk has been on the sick leave for two weeks. When he recovers he will give commentaries. He personally asked me about it,” leader of the [BYuT] fraction Andrii Kozhemiakin said. Zabzaliuk did not pick up the phone those days. When this article was edited the motifs [sic] of his leave were still unclear."

Last Wednesday Zabzaliuk's motives did become clear when, at a press conference, he revealed his 'defection' was in fact part of 'sting' operation. He produced recordings of conversations between himself and Ihor Rybakov, head of ‘Reforms for the Future’ parliamentary group, and alleged Rybakov bribed him to work 'for the other side'. The cynicism of Rybakov is astounding even though rumours of systematic bribing of of opposition deputies had been widespread.

'KyivPost' has posted several articles on this scandal.

Most Ukrainian TV channels and newspapers have downplayed the story, and the ruling authorities' line seems to be: 'both parties are discrediting parliament - Zabzaliuk may be guilty of soliciting a bribe or entrapment. PoR spokesmen say Zabzaliuk should give the money back..thus confirming money had changed hands, and even hinted that he may be charged for taking a bribe..

The two biggest political discussion shows last Friday ignored the topic - almost certainly as a result of pressure from 'vlasti' - a clear example of censorship of what should be the biggest story of the year so far.

Nevertheless transcripts and the audiofiles are readily available. Zabzaliuk has been interviewed on RadioSvoboda, on the minor independent TVi channel, and elsewhere. The recordings are clear, and excerpts can be widely heard on 'the net.'

Rybakov has not claimed the recordings to be faked; rather oddly, he claims he was merely helping a friend who needed the money for a medical operation..

But the most damning conclusion that can be drawn from these excerpts is that it appears the president himself and as well as his administration approved the bribing of opposition politicians and the organisation of opposition 'sleepers', in preparation for massive election fraud during Autumn's parliamentary elections.

LEvko suggests although some/all? of the recordings have been handed over to law enforcement agencies for further investigation, no charges will be brought because the president is so badly implicated.

Even though there may be more recordings that will be 'drip-fed' out in weeks to come, a story that in any 'normal' country would shake the government and administration to its roots will peter out. Sadly, the jaundiced electorate have long ago made up their minds about how diabolically corrupt their elected leaders are..

p.s. TVi report, with interviews in Ukrainian here

Khodorkovsky and Tymoshenko

2012-02-12T13:54:00.003+02:00

I a few weeks time the movie: "Khodorkovsky" will be released. [Brief trailer video and details here ]

The film hints that Khodorkovsky may have 'actually gone to jail on purpose' i.e. instead of fleeing, he wanted to become a martyr and, eventually become president. As one of his Yukos colleagues said, right now: 'He has become Putin's personal hostage'.

Former PM Yulia Tymoshenko is increasingly being referred to as 'Ukraine's Khodorkovsky'.
She, and former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, whose trial is drawing to an end, both knew what awaited them.

In a recent interview, BYuT deputy Roman Zabzaliuk, who in a sting operation induced turncoat deputy Ihor Rybakov to give him bribe of nearly half a million dollars, says Rybakov, when asked about Tymoshenko, curtly told him: "She got what she wanted". This is not the first time such thoughts have been expressed by members of the ruling party. The opportunity for flight was available.

Wily parliamentary speaker, Volodymyr Lytvyn, said, when asked about Tymoshenko last Friday on 'Shuster Live: "We are at a dead end. Ukraine has become a hostage of the problem of Yulia Tymoshenko....there will be no ratification of the Association Agreement with the EU until this problem is solved...Ukraine, its people, have become hostages of this situation". Lytvyn alleged that the opposition were somehow hindering the setting up of legal mechanisms or manipulations to free her.

I would suggest it was not 'Ukraine' or its people that sent her to prison. Only one man bears responsibility - the president. She has become Yanukovych's personal hostage - the analogy with Kodorkovsky is fair.

Few predict Putin will remain president for another 12 years when he wins the next elections. Few can predict Tymoshenko will remain imprisoned for 7 years; but how things work out for these two is unpredictable..nevertheless they will both remain at the heart of politics in their respective countries.

Maybe we will be watching a movie about Tymoshenko soon?

No shopping in London for Kharkiv mayor

2012-02-11T01:51:00.006+02:00

On Friday a story appeared that the mayor of one of Ukraine's biggest cities, Kharkiv, was refused a visa to travel to Great Britain several days previously, allegedly, 'because of his criminal past'.

Hennadiy Kernes was due to travel to London with a delegation led by deputy PM, Borys Kolesnikov on Tuesday in connection with preparations for the Euro 2012 Soccer tournament.

Later on Friday, a spokesman for the Kharkiv city council claimed Kernes does have a two-year British visa in his passport, but he could not fly to London 'because of his large workload'.

Smells rather fishy. I do not believe Kernes would turn down the opportunity to travel to 'Londongrad' in such a high-power delegation...best hotels..VIP treatment etc.. World and European Football Associations are very, very wealthy bodies...and hardly squeaky-clean..]

[Over the years I've heard many times and seen situations where dozens of people wait, sweating for hours outside a high-ranking 'chinovnik's' office for an appointment....meanwhile the 'chinovnik' has gone home early because it's a sunny afternoon..Work ethic is not the first thing that springs to mind when characterising highly placed Ukrainian officials.]

Or a visa may have been granted to Kernes...and then 'pulled' at the last minute... A visa does not guarantee entry...immigration officials can detain anyone they like at the border...

And this may be warning shot across the bows of Borys Kolesnikov. Many consider him the most ruthless 'businessmen' to have emerged during the 'wild-east' '90's days in Donbas region when the Yanukovych-Akhmetov-Kolesnikov triumvirate came to dominate there.

The black list I mentioned in my previous blog may be taking shape...

And no January sales shopping for Genyk..

"There’s a man goin’ ’round takin’ names.
An’ he decides who to free and who to blame.
Everybody won’t be treated all the same.
There’ll be a golden ladder reaching down.
When the man comes around."

"When the man comes around"...Johnny Cash.

Only matter of time before black list' is posted..

2012-02-08T23:32:00.008+02:00

'Segodnya' ran the following story today:

"Europe and the United States have received "black list" of Ukrainian officials

The list includes Yanukovych, Azarov, Firtash, Boyko and Khoroshkovsky

Long before the adoption of the PACE resolution on the functioning of democratic institutions in Ukraine, the opposition gave the leadership of the United States and European Union a list of Ukrainian officials, to whom they should apply sanctions and deny entry into these countries.

According to sources, more than serious attention, both in the EU and over the ocean in the U.S., has been given to the resulting list. According to available information. the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton mentioned the possible legalization of such a list during her recent meeting with Viktor Yanukovych [in Davos].

This list of 'grounded' Ukrainian officials, which very soon will be the subject of discussion in the highest offices of the EU and the U.S., will be headed by President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych, who the opposition accuses of being "the mastermind of political repressions in Ukraine", and his oldest son, Oleksander Yanukovych.

The 'top ten' includes the founder of "RosUkrEnergo" Dmitro Firtash, the Minister of Energy and Mining, Yuriy Boyko, head of the Presidential Administration Serhiy Lyovochkin, head of the SBU Khoroshkovsky, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and Foreign Minister Konstantin Hryshenko.

Also on the list are members of the General Prosecutor's Office and chief serious crime investigator Oleksander Nechvohlod."

LEvko says 'Segondya' is a big-selling daily owned by Rinat Akhmetov - normally quite reliable - no obvious reason they should mislead. It is anyone's guess when the application of such sanctions could occur. But they will be put into place unless Yanukovych changes his attitude to political opponents - and at the moment there is little sign of this happening.
--------------------------------------------------

Dmytro Salamatin has been appointed Minister of Defence. I blogged about this thug last year. Yanukovych had previously appointed him general director of the State arms company "UkrBoronProm". His experience of the military is limited...but he will be totally loyal to the pres.

By the beginning of this year, as head of 'UkrBoronProm' Salamatin ensured all Ukrainian arms exports were monopolised and under his personal control. All income was paid to a Belize offshore company via Cyprus-based bank accounts. Ukrainian arms trade cash flows are now completely centralised, and any foreign intermediaries have most probably been excluded. Previously a separate offshore structure was set up for every major arms export contract. This allowed several insider 'clans' to flourish, and was useful when supplying arms to both sides of one conflict... [Source]

He may become even more useful if/when anti-gov. demonstrations need to be broken up and scattered, and heads cracked..

Hint to EU and Dept. of State: Maybe there is room on 'the list' for Salamatin too...

Lutsenko accuses Yanukovych of blocking prosecution of major crime bosses

2012-02-07T22:26:00.009+02:00

The farcical trial of former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko is drawing to its end.

On Monday the accused was given the opportunity to address the court. In his statement he made several sensational accusations against the president and members of PoR.

He claims he was systematically threatened when he was in the minister's chair and recounted one case where Yanukovych's spokesperson Hannah Herman warned him in parliament: "You will be imprisoned and will get to know what prison is [like]."

He claimed than in four years as Interior Minister he did not even benefit from the use of an apartment provided by the state; and unlike nearly all of his top banana predecessors, prosecutors etc., he did not "privatise" a state dacha in swanky suburbs for himself. One of the cases against Lutsenko alleges he illicitly provided an apartment for his driver.

But the most sensation accusation he directed at president Yanukovych, who after his appointment as PM under president Yushchenko, requested Lutsenko 'back-off' from the pursuit of major crime bosses.

The following from 'Kommersant'

"Yanukovych gave me some flowers and said:" We need to talk together. In the evening the three of us - me, Yanukovych and a driver drive to Mezhyhirya, which had not then been 'privatized'. With music playing, the PM says to me: "Just don't go after Sasha." I ask him, "Which Sasha?". And he says, "Don't pretend [you don't know]... Sasha Melnyk". This guy, Melnyk a.ka. Melya is no.21 on the "For Yanukovych " bloc list in the Crimean parliament. He's the leader of the [300-member (F.N.)] organized criminal gang [Seilem], responsible for about 45 murders. I replied to the PM, "Viktor Fedorovych, there's a game - cops and robbers. Well I'm the cop". He thought I was kidding."

Alexander Melnyk was arrested on September 29, 2006, but was released on October 2 and soon left Ukraine. He returned to the country on December 13, 2006, just a few days after Lutsenko was sacked by a parliamentary motion initiated by the Party of Regions.

Lutsenko claimed the current deputy prosecutor general Renat Kuzmin was wholly responsible for Alexander Melnyk's evasion of justice. "Kuzmin signed arrest warrants for two gang members, but not for the boss. After his 72 hours of detention has expired, he was released, and [he headed] straight to Boryspil [airport]".

"Having all the evidence connecting the gang to murders, including that of a policeman, deputy presecutor general Renat Kuzmin...releases the man who Yanukovych shelters - the head of the organised crime gang."

Lutsenko also accused Kuzmin of 'rehabilitating' another of Ukraine's most notorious crime bosses, Givi Nemsadze, whose gang of 50 or more gangsters allegedly committed over 100 killings. [Nemsadze says: "It was my brother what did all them murders...nothing to do with me..."]

Incidentally, much of this is not new. An excerpt from Wikileaks:

"Lutsenko told Ambassador November 17 [2006] that he had been shocked that the General Prosecutor's Office (GPO) had refused to file charges against Melnyk, who in the 1990s had led the "Seilem" gang responsible for 52 contract murders, including: one journalist; two policemen; 30 businessmen; and 15 OC competitors.

Ukrainian authorities had lured Melnyk from Moscow back to Ukraine this fall after a journalist wrote an article suggesting Melnyk was afraid of Lutsenko. Melnyk was arrested upon arrival, but after GPO non-action and Melnyk's release October 3, he fled back to Moscow. Lutsenko alleged Melnyk was behind the March 1 firebomb attempt of Budzhurova's house. Melnyk's sister Svetlana Verba served as Crimea's Economics Minister, noted Prytula.

And Ihor Lukashev, who chaired the Crimean Rada budget committee, is known as the "wallet" of Melnyk's "Seilem" gang." [More on the Wikileaks link...]

p.s. Head of EC Delegation to Ukraine Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira today confirmed that EU leaders are refusing to meet with President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych - he has become an outcast. He suggested that this may continue whilst Tymoshenko, Lutsenko, and other opposition leaders remain in jail.

About time too...what normal person would want to have anything to do with such thugs..

Yanyk plugs his own corrupt company..

2012-02-06T02:33:00.006+02:00

Video of Yanukovych's 12 minutes of "eyewash" - part of the "Energy, Resources, Environment" panel during last week's 48th Munich Security Conference here

Also on the stage were the Presidentof Azerbaijan, Commissioner for Energy, European Union, Günther H. Oettinger, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt, and others.

Hillary Clinton gave him a telling off, accorting to this diplo-speak Department of State briefing

Arseniy Yatesenyuk asked Yanukovych a pertinent question from the floor: " You did a lot to be somehow benign to our Russian partners. You eliminated [our] NATO membership perspective, you extended the mandate to the Russian Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory. Despite this Russian is not really so co-operative, we still pay the highest price in Europe for gas, Mr president, what should you do with our Russian partners?"

[Video of Yatsenyuk's full question here - His mention of Tymoshenko gained some applause]

Instead of replying directly Yanukovych mentioned that Ukraine is successfully diversifying its energy security, and in particular described the construction of major solar power stations in the country.

Read Serhyi Leshchenko's award-winning exposure of the Ukrainian head of state's corrupt links with Austrian 'Activ Solar' who are tightly linked with these projects, [in English], here

And also from 'F.N.' here

Yanukovych was shamelessly putting in a 'plug' for his own corrupt company....No wonder he got the cold shoulder from Oettinger.

More on this story from 'ZIK' here

p.s. Ex-ua - another black mark on the current administration?

A cross to be placed on Human Rights in Ukraine?

2012-02-01T22:51:00.011+02:00

When Yanukovych was elected president, Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers, prosecutor general's office, tax collection service, and the judiciary were almost immediately packed with his associates from the Donetsk region in a grossly disproportionate manner.

Since then the process has continued at lower levels too and a large number of top jobs in Ukraine's oblast' administrations, police, prosecutors, tax inspectors offices etc, across the country have fell into the hands of president's trustees from Donbas. Compaints about placement of 'overseers' is legion.

The 'Expres' website earlier this week published an article with comprehensive list of examples of this process .

One observer says: Today's authorities do not take into account the professionalism of candidates, but rather whether or not they are natives of the Donetsk region they can personally trust. There is no place for 'foreigners'. The main criterion is personal loyalty..this is the road to nowhere..

Today Sonya Koshkina in 'LB.com' provides another example of how the 'power vertikal' is becoming ever-more concentrated in the hands of a small band of 'Donetskiites'.

Next week Ukraine's Human Rights Ombudsman is to be re-appointed but it seems unlikely that the incumbent, Nina Karpachova, will be permitted to continue in her position. When she visited Yulia Tymoshenko in Kyiv's Lukyanov investigative isolation unit late last year she demanded doctors be allowed to treat the former PM. Karpachova called the situation "unacceptable" and contrary to European norms and conventions..

Last May she declared there was no reason for former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko to be detained in prison and added that she would raise this issue with Ukraine’s prosecutor-general.

Favourite to replace her is the highly disreputable Hennadiy Vasiliev. He was head of the Donetsk prosecutor's office in the lawless early '90's when dozen's of businessmen were killed in the region as local state assets, factories and property were 'redistributed'. Needless to say, almost none of the cases were ever solved or perpetrators brought to justice.

He has been a PoR parliamentary deputy for several convocations, a deputy parliamentary speaker, former Prosecutor General etc. etc. as well as being a big-shot businessman.

Despite always being employed in public service, "Focus" magazine in early 2008 reckoned he was worth about $575 million, while "Korrespondent", in the same year, claimed the figure was $ 1.67billion, i.e. 16th place on the list of Ukraine's richest men.

In 2003-2004 as Prosecutor-General Vasiliev did his utmost to 'bury' the Gongadze case, and he was also linked to several dubious large land deals in and around Kyiv. After the Orange Revolution his laid low, but was re-elected to parliament in 2007. He has very rarely bothered to turn up or show his face there since then.

When Yanukovych became president, he appointed Vasiliev deputy head of the president's administration whilst he simultaneously holding onto his seat in the Verkhovna Rada - a situation not permitted by Ukraine's constitution. Since 2007 Vasiliev has never spoke from the parliamentary podium nor asked one parliamentary question.

In 2011, his name resurfaced in the media when he was linked to raiders' attacks on "Donetskstal." Because of these, trading in shares of the company on the Stock Exchange were suspended for several months, resulting not only in serious losses to the owners, but also serious upheavals in the market as a whole. Many observers considered Vasiliev behind these attempts to squeeze "Donetskstal".

Sonya Koshkina concludes: "He has been nominated of course, so that a cross can finally placed on Human Rights in Ukraine. Vasiliev and duties of ombudsman are concepts as incompatible as Viktor Yanukovych and reforms, or Viktor Yushchenko and decency."

She is correct. It is grotesque that such a person could ever be considered for the post of Human Rights ombudsman, particularly when Ukaine's legal system and judiciary are in such a shambolic state. Vasiliev has as much interest in Human Rights as King Herod had in child welfare..

Iron Yulia

2012-01-31T01:14:00.006+02:00

Several days ago the Russian NTV television channel, allegedly controlled by the Kremlin, premiered a biographic documentary film entitled "Iron Yulia".

Perhaps unexpectedly, it portrayed its subject, Yulia Tymoshenko, in a favourable light. There was little that could be negatively perceived by a Russian, or by a wider audience. Few details of her shady UESU gas trading activities, or even her crucial role in the Orange Revolution where detailed.

One Ukrainian political analyst says the Kremlin is indicating Russia has not forgotten about Yulia Tymoshenko and consider her an alternative to Viktor Yanukovych, particulary as those who imprisoned her now believe she has ceased to be an alternative. It is no accident the film appeared during a period of cooling relations between the president's administration and the Kremlin, when there is little common ground on the issue of gas and Ukraine's gas transportation system.
[Source]

The film could even be a turning point in Tymoshenko's fortunes, though Yanukovych is doing his utmost to keep his arch-enemy under his boot.

But as with the other 'Iron Lady' - the fascination endures... Like it or not, we live in an era of political celebrity..and her incarceration merely adds to the myth..

Lutsenko court parody continues

2012-01-25T23:30:00.005+02:00

If students of law want to know what a politically motivated show trial looks like they need not look into history books. All they have to do is observe what is going on in Kyiv's Pechersky District Court where former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko is being tried..

Yesterday [Tuesday] the presiding judge made no insistence that witnesses attend the court in person to provide testimony that could be be subjected to scrutiny. Instead, he merely "read out more than 20 out of nearly 40 protocols of the interrogation of witnesses who gave evidence during pre-trial investigation at the Prosecutor General's Office and those who said that they could not attend court sessions for various reasons and circumstances."

Many, perhaps most of the 80 or more witnesses that have already given evidence in the courtroom either revoked testimonies they provided to prosecutors, or complained they were coerced into giving misleading evidence.

The entire case has become a parody of legal procedure. The judge is now deliberately bulldozing the trial in order to reach a verdict and sentencing before Lutsenko's case is heard in the European Court of Human Rights in a few weeks time.

[Read more here]

And also from 'ForeignNotes' here and here about how the judge is being blackmailed to give the 'correct' verdict.

p.s. Video from TVi's 'Znak Oklyku' on the Ukrainian Prosecutors' banal and blatant misuse of its powers to coerce witnesses, grooming of witnesses, and invention of false evidence to enable Lutsenko's closest circle to be hounded here

Why would anyone walk away from $80 million?

2012-01-21T22:13:00.013+02:00

Early summer last year a huge scandal emerged: the Ukrainian state company 'ChornomorNaftogaz' purchased a deep sea drilling rig for $ 400 million after what supposedly was a competitive tender process. In the event, only two intermediary companies - the New Zealand Falcona Systems Ltd, and the Cardiff UK-based Highway Investment Processing LLP submitted tenders.

According to their published accounts the source suppliers of the rig, the Norwegian SDRL-Seadrill, received almost $250 million for the rig, so the winners of the tendering process, Highway Investment Processing LLP, took a mind-numbing $ 150 million 'cut' on the deal.

[Highway Investment Processing LLP offices, incidentally lie between 'Tony's Italian and North Indian Cuisine Cafe', 'Chillies Take-Away', and 'Tattoo-U' tattoo parlour, in Cardiff, Wales.]

More here and here

'ChornomorNaftogaz' paid 80% up-front. The rig is currently in a Turkish port having its legs welded on, and the balance is to be paid after installation on site.

However, 'Ukrainska Pravda's investigation of records of the official British comanies' registrar, "Companies House" reveal that 'Highway Investment Processing LLP' is being dissolved, and "will be struck off the register....Upon dissolution, all property and rights vested in, or held in trust for hte LLP..will belong to the crown [i.e. the British Sovereign and State]".

Big questions: Why is a nameplate company which will be 20% of $400 million, i.e. $80 million richer in several months, being wound up? An why should 'ChornomorNaftogaz' pay the balance to a company that will cease to exist in less than 3 months?

Yuriy Boyko was asked about this business on Friday's 'Velyka Polityka z Yevheniem Kyselyovym' by AFP journalist Anya Tsukanova. He rather shiftily responded that transportation of the rig to site cost $15 million... for the other bits and bobs just ask Halliburton [Oilfield Services] who are responsible for its commissioning. And that's it. A Ukrainian proverb came to LEvko's mind: A thief's hat is always on fire....

The creepy Kyselyov, instead of following up the question, sensing Boyko's discomfort, muttered something about Halliburton being a huge US company once led by former secretary of defense Dick Cheney...and moved on.

Everyone knows the whole thing stinks to high heaven....sooner or later chickens will come home to roost..

p.s. If Halliburton are to be paid by 'Highway Investment Processing' for the commissioning work on the rig, they'll surely be getting worried about receiving payment, no? They will have conducted due diligence, so will be aware of the dirty little secrets...

p.p.s. 'Znak Oklyku' documentary on this topic here

Lutsenko's writhes in pain as court judge ignores his appeals [Updated]

2012-01-20T02:41:00.011+02:00

The grotesque spectacle of former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko's trial continues...

Today [Thursday] the court sat for an unprecedented 14 hours - until 11.30 in the evening; and is set to continue Friday at 8.05 am. During the day Lutsenko complained he was feeling ill and doubled up in severe pain. Paramedics were summoned to attend to the accused on four occasions [some reports said five] through the day and he was administered painkilling injections several times. He spent periods lying down in the courtroom cage as proceedings continued..

So many witnesses have either given evidence in support of Lutsenko or have complained of pressure from prosecutors to 'rat' on him that in any normal court the presiding judge would have dismissed the trial many months ago, or declared a mistrial.

French human fights Ambassador Francois Zimeray, who attended the trial, declared Lutsenko's treatment to be inhuman and illegal.
The judge must really be having his balls squeezed hard by puppetmasters....

[Photo source]

p.s. On Friday Lutsenko did not appear in court. His defence council said that he had returned to his cell at 2.00 am and was awoken at 4.30 am in readiness for Friday's court session...

What is the point of such vindictive and despicable treatment of to the accused? LEvko suggests: to demonstrate to Ukrainians who is now in total command.. who has absolute power...and to spread fear by providing an example of what happens to those the authorities consider a threat to their omnipotence ..

Khoroshkovsky and RUE group tighten grip

2012-01-19T02:21:00.008+02:00

Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko, presidential administration head Serhiy Lyovochkin, former State Security Service of Ukraine head, as-of-today Minister of Finance, Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, and RosUkrEnergo part-owner Dmytro Firtash have many times been accused by Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and others of large-scale corruption and conflicts of interest in the natural gas trade.

"Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, repeating accusations she made while in power, alleged on Sept. 6 [2010] that all four men are business associates in either the gas trade or in media holdings, making it a massive conflict of interest for these government officials to be involved in decisions that could transfer $5 billion worth of the state's natural gas supplies back to RosUkrEnergo, 45 percent owned by Firtash. " [Source]

And yet: "According to government figures, Ostchem, a company through which he [Firtash] has consolidated control over much of Ukraine’s chemical business, imported with Russian permission about 5 billion cubic meters of Central Asian gas in 2011. Moreover, sources close to Firtash claim it imports the gas at significantly lower prices than the blue fuel that goes through Naftogaz. These are privileges that few have and it has yet to be explained why Russia would give these favors to Firtash."[Read more]

As Interfax recently reported: "According to the Central Dispatching Department of the Fuel and Energy Complex (CDU TEK), Ukraine imported 44.7 bcm of natural gas in 2011 - Ukraine's national oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy received 39.175 bcm, and independent importer Ostchem Holding, which belongs to Ukrainian businessman Dmytro Firtash, imported 5.53 bcm of Turkmen gas."

How can Ukraine possibly get a fair deal on gas when it's chief negotiators with Gazprom are involved in such a massive inside deal?

As for Khoroshkovsky, who was appointed by presidential decree - he and the RUE faction will now be working ever closer with 'the Yanukovych Family' for their further mutual self-enrichment.

The 'metallurgical wing' of PoR is being well looked after too, in case they get jealous...

Tymoshenko being poisoned? [Updated]

2012-01-18T01:35:00.004+02:00

I suppose that it was inevitable - sooner or later reports about the possible poisoning of former PM Yulia Tymoshenko, who is now encarcerated in a penal colony near Kharkiv, would emerge. One 'expert' toxicologist now considers she may be being poisoned with thallium [as favoured by the Russian FSB..]

It is not unreasonable to consider that something peculiar did occur on 6th January over the Orthodox Christmas period, when she apparently lost consciousness after taking medication and was quickly taken to hospital by ambulance for scans and tests. It is unlikely such a turn of events would have been preplanned by the authorities.

Tymoshenko's daughter Yevheniya is currently publicising her mother's predicament in Western Europe - and providing good copy for the media.

Until the former PM is examined by independent foreign physicians the allegations of maltreatment and denial of proper medical care, etc. etc. will continue...this will eventually dawn on Yanukovych and his spin doctors..

Many Ukrainians will take a jaundiced view of the shenanigans surrounding Tymoshenko, which may be a diversionary tactic designed to make citizens think less about their worsening economic situation, but in Europe...everyone remembers Yushchenko's face...Lytvynenko..and will think...on top of a most dubious trial?...hmmm...

Update: Just a few hours after reports of alleged poisoning of Yulia T. the Prosecutor General's office say they will permit foreign medical experts to examine Tymoshenko...However,
in Ukraine the gap between declarations and realisations is often infinite..And just as in the Yushchenko poisoning so many false trails are laid, allegations and counter-allegations made that getting to the truth is impossible.

Today that bad joke of a deputy Prosecutor General Renat Kuzmin threatened to open a criminal case against former president Yushchenko if it is found that his blood samples were falsified..

Sooner or later people will demand their money back

2012-01-17T02:18:00.000+02:00

This is from Alexander Lebedev's blog in 'The Guardian. [Lebedev owns several British newspapers].

Much of what he says applies to Ukraine also.

"Everybody knows what happened after the fall of the Soviet Union. A few opportunistic businessmen swooped like vultures to claim whole industries for themselves. Quickly, they made hundreds of millions by monopolising them. The Kremlin, whose long slide into autocracy shows no sign of relenting, made deals with several of them, knowing it would be easier to keep them on side than to open up Russia's economy to proper procedures, competition, and fair trade. That's the story people are familiar with. But something is beginning to change. First of all, several of these men – it's almost always men, I'm afraid – have grievances with each other which date back many years; but they have only recently called in their lawyers. So expect more disputes in the manner of Berezovsky v Abramovich soon.

Second, the sheer scale of the losses to the Russian people – in shady deals and contracts, and lost productivity, jobs, and income – is only now becoming clear. My own estimate is that over $500bn has been effectively stolen from the Russian people between 2003-2011; economists I speak to in Moscow suggest it could be more. Russia's struggling citizens have every right to reclaim these funds, and as awareness of this vast sum spreads across the country, so too will intolerance of it. When demonstrations broke out in Moscow before Christmas, it was noticeable how many of the protesters were demanding their money back from the Kremlin."

Ukraine could do much more to renegotiate gas price with Russia

2012-01-11T00:10:00.002+02:00

Today former PM Yulia Tymoshenko wrote a letter to Parliament from her prison cell warning that a new government would denounce any possible lease of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.

She also declared that the now infamous contract which followed the head-to-head Putin-Tymoshenko gas crisis negotiations in early 2009 included a clause whereby the price of gas could be modified without penalty.

On 22nd January 2009 'Ukrainska Pravda' published what they alleged was a leaked copy of the 10-year contract signed by former Naftohaz Ukrainy head Oleh Dubina, and Gazprom's CEO Alexey Miller.

Sure enough, paragraph 4.4 says: "If either side declares that circumstances on the market for fuel-energy products have changed significantly in relation to that which the sides substantially expected when the current contract was concluded, and the contract price indicated in paragraph 4.1 of the current contract does not reflect the level of prices on the market, then the sides [can] enter into negotiations on the review of the contract prices corresponding to the conditions of the current contract."

The contract also includes articles [paragraph 8.1 onward] on regulating disputes by arbitration, and also confidentiality clauses.

Why does the current adminstration, instead of complaining about the high price they are paying for Russian gas - supposedly much greater that that being paid by European customers, do everything possible permitted under the terms of the contract to get the price lowered?

Reason? Side-deals and huge kickbacks?...And as a bonus, Tymoshenko can take the blame and be locked away for seven years?

Gloomy assessment for 2012

2012-01-09T02:02:00.005+02:00

In their last issue of 2011 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' asked 20 emminent Ukrainian journalists, political technologists, sociologists, writers, civic leaders etc. whether a change in government is possible in 2012.

Readers of the internet version could register whether they agree or disagree with any of the opinions expressed by any of the commenters.

In general the tone of the article is gloomy - the country seems to be in a state of deep malaise. Reader's assessments underscore this.

Here are a few [edited] comments:

Vitaliy Portnikov -TV journalist:
For me it is clear that post-Soviet system of governance and social division has exhausted itself - and not only in Ukraine. A [period of] global redistribution of power and a changes of elite approaching throughout the former Soviet Union. I would not like to be a prophet and say for certain that this redistribution will take place in Ukraine in 2012, but it is inevitable. And this will certainly not be just a banal regime change - the depths of the shocks experienced could easily be comparable to those of the early 90's.
2842 Agree, 149 Disagree

But journalist Mustafa Nayem considers any change is not possible at the the moment. Those who could potentially take over power are not capable of explaining why those currently in power are worse that they are. Agree 1827, Disagree 254

Nayem's TV colleague Mykola Knyazytskyi, considers a change is possible. If the country's basic democratic principles are neglected and there are no resources to fulfill the social needs of its citizens, mass protests may start any minute, and no one can predict when they could start. The Ukrainian political system was reformed by Viktor Yanukovych himself so he has taken the entire responsibility for what happens in the country onto himself. Sociological reports indicate that neither he nor his party command a majority of the electorate. Quite simply he is not liked as a leader. Dictators can retain power either by bayonets, or by the love of the people...And if there is no love, then Facebook and Twitter - are much more powerful weapons than bayonets. And an unloved and disarmed politician cannot retain power [for long periods]. Agree 2269, Disagree 84

And this, probably more sober analysis, from the writer Andriy Kurkov:
..Today, no real political rivals [ready to challenge] the party [of Regions] exist. If the nearest party to them [Tymoshenko's] "Batkivschyna", gain a majority in parliamentary elections, an interesting situation may arise when a lot of the MP's who deserted earlier to "Regiony"return. Then, together they could change the party leadership, and if necessary declare "Batkivshchyna" the reformed PoR. I, like many citizens do not see any ideological difference between these parties.

PoR has become knows as a "rough bulldozer" which clears all the best locations for construction sites for its close circle. However, it is difficult to believe that with the coming of the new political force anything would change suddenly. Ukraine remains a desert, not only in an economical but also in a political sense. There is an attitude of protest amonst the people - they are ready to vote "against". But they are more "against' that which exists than "for" what is to come. There is a catastrophic lack of ideological competition in the country...The ideology of the main parties is just money and desire to remain in power as long as possible, which means control of state and budgetary finances and control of the security forces and justice. With these you can continue to legalize the duration of the period in power.

But nothing eternal exists, and new names will be added to the list of parties of power. If these new parties are not created by politicians from other camp, they will be created by the Party of Regions itself in order to ensure a "peaceful transfer of power" to a younger generation, i.e. their children in the literal as well as figurative sense.

Ukrainians will have to wait a long time for a George Washington. Particularly as the Ukrainian political scene has been infected with another dangerous virus - a virus of corporate retaliation, which is the main reason, for example, for the imprisonment of Yuri Lutsenko. Agree 945, Disagree 238

p.s. The successful, award-winning Danish political television drama 'Borgen' has just started a run on British TV. The central character is Birgitte Nyborg, leader of the Moderate party, who comes from behind in parliamentary elections as the result of a scandal involving the incumbent prime minister. In the first episode he used a government credit card to pay for some accessories and clothes at Burberry's for his wife on a trip to London. The sum involved was 70,000 Danish Krone [about 7,000 Euro] . This was enough to bring him down.

Nyborg herself cycles to work. She puts on weight during the election campaign and some of her clothes don't fit well. On the night of the election she returns home in a taxi...
Ukrainians would consider such a plot prepostrous.

Thin-skinned Yanukovych

2012-01-06T02:19:00.004+02:00

So, following the defacement of poster billboards depicting president Yanukovych in Lviv, written instructions have been handed out to local officials to make sure they are properly maintained, and local officials "react accordingly" in the event of their damage...

Yanukovych was roundly boo'ed and heckled when opening the new Kyiv Olympic stadium several weeks ago, and even 'chickened out' from the opening of the new Lviv stadium. When his face was displayed on big screens, he was jeered and boo'ed.

What sort of reaction does he expect to get when he shows his face during the Euro 2012 competition?

The billboard says: 'This year will open up Ukraine to Europe and the World'....and reveal Yanukovych's popularity nose-diving...he had better get used to it.

Tymoshenko overtakes Yanukovych in popularity

2012-01-03T23:56:00.003+02:00

I've rather loosely translated an article from the Russian 'Nezavisimaya Gazeta' from a few days ago.

Tymoshenko overtakes Yanukovych in popularity -The Ukrainian president's team is losing ground even in his native Donbass

Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is for the first time ahead of Yanukovych in rankings of popular sympathy. This, according to the Razumkov Centre, was one of the main political conclusions of 2011. The second, equally important O.P. result is the extremely high level of frustration, discontent and anxiety in the community which could lead to revolutionary scenario springing up in 2012 parliamentary elections.

Since the last presidential elections in 2010, Yanukovych has been ahead of Tymoshenko in all O.P.s. This has been attributed by experts to regional characteristics: the most stable electorate supporting the head of state lives in the densely populated industrial areas of eastern Ukraine. The opposition leader is most consistently supported the western regions which are more thinly populated. But right now the picture is becoming muddled. Many residents of the Donbass region, which had expected economic improvements with the appointment of their man as president, have instead experience the hardships of economic reform. As a result thy have become disillusioned with his political force.

Sympathy for the imprisoned Tymoshenko is increasing. There may be no increase in the number who trust Tymoshenko, but the perception that she has been maltreated is harming the authorities' ratings, says one expert.

How the situation has changed is revealed by the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Razumkov Center. If presidential elections were held now, 16.3% would vote for Tymoshenko, 13.3% for Yanukovych. Third would be Arseniy Yatseniuk - 10.7%.

Sociologists note that significantly, 10.7% of Ukrainians would vote against all candidates, 11.9% would not take part in the elections, and14.7% were undecided. They interpret these figures thus: over 37% of citizens are waiting for a new leader and are possibly even ready to participate in the revolutionary scenarios. As a footnote, according to the Razumkov Center, over 67% of Ukrainians believe that events in the country are developing in the wrong direction.

Another pre-Christmas survey, by Centre Research & Branding Group, showed that 72% of citizens considered the outgoing year was difficult. Only a third of Ukrainians will celebrate the New Year in a festive mood with hopes for better to come. Another 42% suffer from anxiety and worry about the future.

Politologist Serhiy Taran says that the parliamentary election campaign, which will, in reality begin in the Spring, could be a catalyst for turmoil. "People do not take to the streets when they realize that it is not possible to change things any time soon. But during election campaigns there exists a mood of possible changes in society." He added though, that most politically aware Ukrainians do not not see enough leaders worthy of trust.

Director of the 'Penta' Center for Applied Policy Research, Volodymyr Fesenko says that the year-end rating of the party in power has declined, and this has slightly improved the situation for the opposition. But what is significant is the steep increase in the level of social tension.

At the same time Fesenko doubts that in the absence of new leaders will cause the situation to escalate to revolutionary events. Experts point out a paradox: Yanukovych's team, by trying to neutralize their main political rival are doing everything to increase Tymoshenko's rating. The authorities, although they are most fearful of national disturbances, are themselves provoking the growth of such sentiments in society.

LEvko's view is that you have to be pretty dumb to lock away your biggest political opponent when there is a realistic possibility her political force and its allies could secure a majority in parliamentary elections in less than a year's time. This should be most obvious bearing in mind how close Tymoshenko ran Yanukovych in the last presidential elections and how great a portion of the electorate would never vote for Yanukovych or his allies.

The current administration are lucky that Arseniy Yatsenyuk and other opposition leaders are men of moderation...for now. But the chance of grasping power, and events that inevitably happen, change men...

Even normally level-headed commentators, eg. in 'Kommersant' are predicting likely increases in acts of disobedience and protest this year.

Corruption scandals of 2011

2011-12-30T00:46:00.005+02:00

For those who understand Ukrainian I recommend last Monday's TVi 'Znak Oklyku' round-up-of-the-year programme. Watch it here

Topics include the following resonant scandals, most of which I've written about in my blogs -

The purchase of two deep-sea drilling platforms at twice their proper price via shade offshore companies linked to companies that also provide drug money laundering services...

Yanukovych's opaquely acquired 27,000 hectare Dniprovsko-Teterivske state forestry hunting grounds - now surrounded by high fences, deep moat, control posts complete with hundreds of armed guards..

The never-ending purchase of expensive automobiles, helicopters, luxury train carriages etc. to supplement the president's motor pool..

The construction of expensive and unnecessary helicopter pads up and down the country for the president's use..

The promotion of an allegedly highly corrupt judge, Oleksandr Paseniuk, to the post of Constitutional Court judge - achieved by blatantly corrupt voting of deputies in the Verkhovna Rada. [Paseniuk was the boss of judge Ihor Zvarych who was recently sentenced to many years in prison. Head of the Ivano-Frankivsk Arbitration Court Petro Cherpy admitted he had given Zvarych $150,000, of which $140,000 Zvarych had to pass to Paseniuk, the- then head of the Supreme Administrative Court. .. a good example "Blackmail State", where blackmail is used as an instrument of state control]

And how shady offshore companies who currently rent large tracts of land are using hundreds of students and pensioners as 'pawn's. These are 'bussed' into the countryside in a corrupt 'carousel scheme' to gain options to purchase the much smaller plots into which the land is being divided up, in readiness for yet-to-be-announced privatisation.

Political pundits' predictions for 2012

2011-12-28T12:42:00.002+02:00

Several days ago emminent journalists and civic leader members of Vitaliy Portnikov's 'Polit Club' talking shop met in a central Kyiv coffee bar for an "end-of-year report/forecast-for-next-year" session .

Two-hour video of the event here

Increasing numbers of protests were predicted in the New Year. Ominously, there are reports that the salaries of some state employees in Kyiv are already slipping in arrears.

The arrest of Yulia Tymoshenko, the most significant event of 2011, became a wake-up call not only for politicians and public figures, but also for the oligarchs. A precedent has been set - her fate could be suffered by anyone, so even the richest in the country cannot feel 100% safe.

There was general agreement that inevitably, significant fraud will take place in next Autumn's parliamentary elections because the ratings of the current government [as well as that of Yanukovych himself] have dropped to worryingly low levels. Nevertheless, the competitve nature of Ukrainian politics, which Yanukovych will not be able to modify or destroy, will sooner or later force him out of power.

Like it or not, because of lack of refoms, Ukraine remains very much a part of the post-Soviet space. Recent events in Russia indicate that a lack of perspective for the future coupled with a desire for change is driving the most active members of society onto the streets. Protesters realise that without change disaster awaits and the current state structure is simply not sustainable. Despite its massive resources Russia has not been able to avoid social discontent so the likelyhood of such events taking place in Ukraine, which is in a far worse economic situation, is much greater. Economic turmoil in Europe and high cost of gas imports will only increase Ukraine's woes.

Predicted political chaos will take place when the authorities run out of money; but out of this chaos, hopefully, and new political elite may be formed.

Corruption and Authoritarianism

2011-12-26T01:10:00.003+02:00

Below is a precis of Vitaly Portnikov's latest blog in 'Korrespondent'

After last week's failure to initial the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, Viktor Yanukovych has tried to put on a brave face on this foreign policy debacle.

Initialing the text of the documents may eventually take place in the months to come, but signing and ratification of the agreement by the parliaments of EU countries members in the current circumstances is just a pipe dream.

Clear conditions have been set by the EU in order to move the Ukraine's Euro-integration forward.

Not only does there have to be a stop the judicial system being used to prosecute the president's main political rivals, but the next elections have to be seen to be fair.

Fair elections in this context means unfettered participation by the opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko. This is not just about the decriminalization of articles used to convict her, but about the creation of conditions under which her name can appear in the ballot. And, of course, the government has to ensure voting and counting procedures are 'squeaky clean'.

Given that preparations for falisification are now in full swing, [without them the current ruling coterie cannot retain their power and income] further integration with the European Union can be put back for several years, if not forever.

The summit which has just taken place illustrates what happens when government agencies and institutions exist, but the state itself is absent. There is a president, but he is not really concerned with the public interest, only with his own well-being, residences, hunting lodges, helicopters, and his sons' success.

There is a government, but it comprises billionaires who are concerned only about their own security and the prosperity of their businesses. Most of the deputies in parliament share the same concerns so parliament's role is not to legislate, but exists for other purposes. There are courts, but no-one would turn to them in the hope of a fair decision. Law enforcement agencies exist but their aim is to fulfill the wishes of those in power or to provide cover for groups related to them. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs can prepare agreements with foreign counterparts, but their diplomatic work is frequently in vain because of insurmountable political obstacles.

The state should primarily be about values and social control over its agencies and institutions. Neither one nor the other is apparent in Ukrainian society. That is why Ukrainian citizens continue to vote for 'big chiefs', not political ideals and economic programs - and when they become disenchanted with them they feverishly search for new messiahs.

That is why very few people in Ukraine, from the President down to an ordinary citizen, can understand what these pernickety Europeans want from them.

To release Tymoshenko? What do they want her for? - It is costing them closer ties with Ukraine. Surely it is not worth pushing Yanukovych into Russian arms for her? And was the Ukrainian judicial system less politically dependent and corrupt before the arrest Tymoshenko ? These are the questions being asked by authors of internet blogs, by opposition politicians, and propagandists for the power structures. And just setting these questions demonstrates the extent of their non-Europeaness.

There is no doubt, corruption exists in the judiciary in many countries; their dependence on the authorities can be seen in some of the new members of the European Union.

But it is quite another thing when this relationship is used to clear the political field of battle and establish an authoritarian regime. Whatever anyone may say, this is the first time this has happened in Ukraine.

Neither Tymoshenko at the time of her first arrest in 2001, nor Boris Kolesnikov nor Yevgen Kushnaryov in 2005 were leading political figures. Their detentions could give rise to resentment or excuses could be made for them, but it did not fundamentally change the situation in the country. That is why the West reacted cautiously to the arrests of officials which began after Yanukovych came to power, and even to the arrest of Yuriy Lutsenko.

But Tymoshenko's arrest changed everything because it became obvious the main intention of the new President was to deprive the people of the very possibility of choice, to remove from politics the person receiving roughly the same number of votes as himself in the last presidential elections.

This intent is what distinguishes corruption from authoritarianism; and also distinguishes Europe from the former Soviet Union, the methods and principles of which have returned in contemporary Ukraine.

LEvko's comment: The EU was created was to ensure authoritarian regimes led by dictators such as Hitler, Franco, Ceauşescu, Honecker etc. etc. would never be seen again in Europe.

You get elected, put in a shift running the country, then move on. After this it is someone else's turn. If you are in opposition law enforcement agencies and judiciary are not be used to keep you out of power. And once out of power your are not arrested for political decisions that you made.

This is a non negotiable core value in the EU - hence their reaction to Tymoshenko's treatment.

p.s. Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira, the European Commission’s Ambassador to Ukraine, recently claimed he had been invited to take part in the widely viewed 'Shuster Live' programme on 14th October, but the invitation was 'pulled' at the last moment. Shuster at that time offered Pinto Teixeira an opportunity to appear on his programme in late December, after the EU-Ukraine summit. A TV appearance by the top EU man in Kyiv would seem entirely appropriate in the current circumstances, but to date, Pinto Teixeira has yet to appear on the show..

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, probably the most popular opposition politician not in custody, has been repeatedly denied access to the 'Shuster Live' show..

Interference and threats from Yanukovych

2011-12-21T23:41:00.005+02:00

At his end-of-year press conference today, president Yanukovych commented on the Tymoshenko investigation thus:

"I warned all those ['vykovavtsi'] involved - there was a special meeting - I warned them: you should know that society, the public, experts will be looking at this matter under a microscope..if you break the law you will be held responsible, possibly criminally responsible."

"If there is an investigation [into the Tymoshenko case] - there should be court trial, to dot the i's, as they say."

"I never would never wish to exchange [or switch] investigators or judges. I know what this is. I never, never did this and will never do this..

"I cannot interfere in investigative acts or the work of the legal system, and I advice journalists not to do so."

By calling the "special meeting" did he interfere in due legal process? Who attended? Prosecutors? Investigators? Judiciary? All of them or just some of them?" Was the meeting minuted?

Because the trial was assessed by almost all western observers as a legal shambles, will the 'vykovavtsi' be 'dealt with' by Yanukovych for the embarassment and damage they have caused to the country's reputation?

Is he admitting that he pressurised 'vykonavtsi' to stage a trial even if the investigator's evidence against Tymoshenko was unconvincing?

Or is this merely a slip - an unintentional admission he threatened 'vykonavtsi' at this 'special meeting' to: "Lock her up - do it cleanly - or I will lock you up.."?

The last of these may be the most likely. In a sneering response to a question at the press conference from 'Ukrainska Pravda' journalist Mustafa Nayem on the president's expensive rented helicopter and Mezhyhirya' residence and on connections between the companies who run them and his son, Yanukovych threatened the questioner: "What kind of a sweet life are you talking about, I do not know, and [you] discuss the topic of my family. I want to tell you.. I do not envy you..."

Chuckling, after a pause he added: "Me and you, we know each other well, understand one another. [On] the other thing, you can come to your own conclusion.." [Ostalnoye dodumayte sami..]

Havrysh's gloomy prognosis

2011-12-21T01:34:00.003+02:00

Several days ago seasoned Ukrainian politician Stepan Havrysh was interviewed on 'Radio Svoboda'.

Until last month he was Deputy Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council, which was all but neutralised by Yanukovych after he was elected president.

Havrych has been around the top politicos for many years, and although he is now out of favour with Yanuk, he opinions are nevertheless worth listening to.

Here is one portion of his interview:

R.S. How realistic will it be for the authorities to keep the socio-economic situation under control until the next elections, taking account of the second wave of the [global] crisis and problems connected to the price of Russian gas?

S.H. - There are dry and not very encouraging statistics. Our current external debt (public and private) is about $135 billion, our budget deficit - more than $30 billion. External debt - which we need to return next year, is almost $ 7 billion. Clearly, in these conditions, without external borrowing, which we are unable to do [we have a problem]. And [as] the IMF has ceased cooperating with Ukraine, this is obvious. The World Bank under these circumstances will not give any money - [and] will not help.

In 2008 there were 17 Western banks which had 40% of the banking system assets working in Ukraine. Today, most of them have left Ukraine, and capital repatriation by foreign investors continues. Notice that Euro 2012 has not attracted major European or American or Chinese investors to Ukraine. Privatization on which we rely takes place between a handful of groups who [deliberately] devalue these assets.. -

R.S. What could be way out of this situation? A change of government? Or a handover of the gas transportation system?

S.H. We stand between the surrender of key assets, and technical default. - One solution really could be selling off of the gas transport system, ie, key assets. And this solution I think, is being actively discussed by the government. The resignation of the government will give only temporary political respite, for 2-3 months, not more. The new government can do nothing without external borrowing, without significant reforms which do not exist ... We stand between surrender of key assets and the technical default of the state.

PACE calls for charges against former Ukrainian gov't members to be dropped

2011-12-20T13:37:00.004+02:00

"The functioning of democratic institutions in Ukraine" -

Draft resolution adopted unanimously on 15 December 2011 by the Committee on the Honouring of Obligations and Commitments by Member States of the Council of Europe .

"1. The Parliamentary Assembly expresses its concern with regard to the criminal proceedings initiated under Articles 364 (abuse of office) and 365 (exceeding official powers) of the Criminal Code of Ukraine against a number of former government members, including against former Minister of the Interior, Mr JuriyLutsenko, former Acting Minister of Defence, Mr Valeriy Ivashchenko, former first Deputy Minister of Justice,Mr Yevhen Korniychuk, as well as former Prime Minister, Ms Yulia Tymoshenko.

2. The Assembly considers that Articles 364 and 365 of the Ukrainian Criminal Code are overly broad inapplication and effectively allow for post-facto criminalisation of normal political decision-making. This runs counter to the principle of the rule of law and is unacceptable. The Assembly therefore urges the authorities promptly to remove these two articles from the Criminal Code and for the charges against former government officials which are based on these provisions to be dropped. The Assembly wishes to emphasise that the assessment of political decisions and their effects is the prerogative of parliaments, and ultimately of the electorate, and not of the courts. It considers that that strict international standards delimitating political and criminal responsibility need to be developed.

3. The Assembly regrets the numerous shortcomings noted in the trials against former government members and considers that they may have undermined the possibility for the defendants to obtain a fair trial within the meaning of Article 6 of the European Convention of Human Rights."

Etc. Etc

EU will not accept authoritarianism

2011-12-20T02:07:00.004+02:00

I really liked Vitaliy Portnikov's comments on Monday's non initialling of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement posted on the Radio Svoboda site.

I've loosely translated some bits of it here:

"At today's meeting between President of Ukraine Yanukovych and EU officials what happened is what should have happened: i.e. nothing. No initialling of any Association Agreement with the EU, and no kind of free trade zone.

The real sensation would have been the refusal of Europeans to deviate from their basic principles, their willingness to solemnly initial an agreement with a country whose leaders are carefully constructing an authoritarian Lukashenkovite regime. But the expectation of some kind of diplomatic miracle was in reality a test of morality, not only for the Ukrainian authorities, but also for the Ukrainian opposition, many of whom were calling for continuing European integration in spite of "some case against Tymoshenko"; as if it was not crystal clear that to use judicial levers to settle political accounts would inevitably cast the country far from Europe.

This was a test for many civic activists who presented the same slogans and argued that the way to "educate" Yanukovych was through Europe.

This was a test for Ukrainian journalists who readily repeated and maintained such irresponsible statements. And the results of the test showed that Ukraine has no place either in Europe or next to it, and that the country has returned back to the past.

The country has returned to the past because its society and elite are devoid of moral values or any ability to resist authoritarianism. That's why Yanukovych has been successful. Tha is why Tymoshenko in jail. And if tomorrow Yatseniuk or Klitschko were to wind up in jail what would happen? Nothing. People will get agitated on the internet - and then benignly calm down.

No technical problems existed in the signing of these agreements with the EU. The only one
problem was a moral one. The problem was created by Yanukovych, but Ukrainians could solve it very easily. Had as many people gathered under the court walls as had gathered for the tax demonstrations in the capital the Ukrainian President would personally have come to release the opposition leader, and an obedient pseudo-parliament would have adopted all the necessary changes in the Penal Code.

The authorities spit on Brussels and on Moscow. They are afraid only of their own citizens. Ukrainians have merely explained to one other that they are "not for Yulia," and this is "not their war". That "those at the top are all the same". Even supporters of Tymoshenko are more comfortable holding talks in the presidential administration than addressing public meetings.

And no one wants to understand that all this is not about Tymoshenko. It's about the Soviet judicial system - about authoritarianism.That is a barrier that has descended on Ukraine's path to the civilized world. And the barrier has been lowered not in front of Yanukovych, it has been lowered before all Ukrainians. And has been lowered deservedly ."

Zero confidence in Ukrainian health service

2011-12-18T16:46:00.009+02:00

Yulia Tymoshenko was recently filmed without her permission in a hospital prison cell while she was visited and examined by white-coated, highly-placed health service officials. The crude and distasteful piece of video 'pokazukha' was leaked and can be seen on Youtube. It shows the former PM being held in what in most West European countries resembles a normal prison cell.

She had been moved there for medical treatment as the result of pressure from European politicians. The Lithuanian president had shamed president Yanukovych into ensuring his political arch-rival had proper medical provision and was provided with what he himself called 'current European standard' prison conditions.

The state of the cell where she had been held before this, during and after her trial are not clear, but it seems it has since been 'tarted up'.

The true opinion of the president were perhaps exposed on the 'Shuster Live' broadcast last Friday by National Security and Defence Council Advisor, Valeriy Ivasyuk who said:"Yulia Tymoshenko's lawyers are exploiting the state of health of Yulia Tymoshenko in a completely unqualified and shameless manner to somehow influence the criminal process of review of the deeds committed by Tymoshenko as former Prime Minister."

He added: "Thousands of people detained inside prisons without air conditioners, and excuse me, with open stool toilets, are dying every day. Why should Tymoshenko benefit from other conditions in prison just because of her previous position?"

Was he really suggesting with this loose comment that Tymoshenko should be locked away in a medieval dungeon in the hope she dies there? LEvko thinks he was - the word sadistic again springs to mind.

The topic of the 'Shuster Live' programme was the treatment and prevention of tuberculosis. Most of the questions to the guests present, including Minister of Health Oleksandr Anishchenko, concerned schemes for public procurement of medicines which are generally considered highly corrupt.

At the end of the show the audience were asked whether they believed the government would now be taking [positive] measures in the fight against tuberculosis. Astonishingly, 100% of the audience responded negatively. Not one member of the large audience showed any confidence the authorities would do anything to alleviate the problem of TB in Ukraine.

Ukrainian state healthcare is a dead duck..

p.s. Foreign minister Konstatnyn Hryshchenko, on last Friday's Yevgeniy Kiselov's talk show looked as if he had sh*t his pants...my impression is he knows what a national disaster Monday's non initialling of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement will turn out to be, and he will be soon be getting the sack...He is probably clearing his office desk - and siphoning gasoline out of the company automobile already...

High farce [and fence] at Kyiv Court of Appeals

2011-12-14T22:20:00.018+02:00

One of Yulia Tymoshenko's main defence attourneys, Mykola Siriy, was today prevented from entering the Kyiv Court of Appeals building where an appeal lodged by Tymoshenko against the verdict on the Russian gas supply contract case was being considered.

The former PM did not attend the hearing because of ill health. BYuT fraction parliamentary deputies were also denied admission despite their constitutional right as deputies, to do so.

Later, Siriy told journalists: "Five minutes before the hearing [was due to begin] I was not allowed to enter, [and] none of the police officers could explain anything. The only way I could participate in court proceedings was to climb over the fence. 'Berkut' special forces began pulling me off whilst the deputies helped me. They wouldn't let me get off on the other side so I had to jump. But the main thing here was not the "flight" of attourney Siriy, [see photo] but rather the closed nature of the trial".

Also about 1:40 minutes into this video.

He added that, fortunately, he did not suffer any injury, and almost immediately after jumping the fence he went into the court hearing.

This appeal hearing will be as farcical as Tymoshenko's trial earlier this year.

Yesterday I blogged about the Ukraine's Minister of Justice 'swanning around' in a Mercedes SUV stolen in Germany by a gang of smugglers. Today, a distinguished lawyer is seen jumping over a high court fence. No wonder the country is considered to be a joke..

p.s. The next session of the Kyiv Court of Appeal is scheduled for...20th December...the day after the Ukraine-EU summit, when, most likely, the Association Agreement will not be initialled. Some kind of fig-leaf 'agreement' will be offered up to avoid complete fiasco..

Everybody knows ratification by European parliaments is improbable for years.

Ukraine's Minister of Justice and a 'stolen' Merc

2011-12-13T21:47:00.004+02:00

Big-selling German popular newspapers have recently been running a story about Ukrainian Justice Minister Oleksandr Lavrynovych and his top-of the range Mercedes GL 420 SUV - that was reported stolen in Germany in January 2010.

The vehicle is currently being sought by Interpol as part of a wider investigation into criminal racketeering.

Lavrynovych is a stooge of Yanukovych whose star is now in the ascendant following Yuliya Tymoshenko's trial and imprisonment.

The scandal in which his is embroiled came to light as a result of a feud between Lavrynovych and PoR parliamentary deputy Valeriy Konovalyuk.

Konovalyuk 'ratted' on him to Interpol after they had tangled over a shady business deal involving a German company and the supply of state-of-the-art ID cards and other documents. Well over $100 million from state funds may have 'gone adrift'.

German authorities claim huge numbers of vehicles are stolen to order in their country every year for customers in Eastern Europe. If they are intercepted and impounded at the Ukrainian border, instead of being returned to their rightful owners, Ukrainian courts 'legalise' their theft by impounding them and allowing them to be 'passed on' to the 'right people' - like Lavrynovych.
On 14 April 2011, the Ukraine's traffic police registered the Mercedes in question as the property of the Department of Justice.

Meanwhile members of the criminal car-smuggling gang who stole Lavrynovych's merc have been sentenced to five and nine years in prison in Germany..

[Nice photo of Lavrynovych - [that's L-a-v-r-y-n-o-v-c-h] at this link just make sure all western law enforcement agencies 'clock' him]. And a photo of him getting out of his 'panzer wagon' here ]

Preparing for the worst?

2011-12-10T00:12:00.003+02:00

German ambassador to Kyiv Dr. Hans-Jürgen Heimsoeth posted a significant article in today's 'Ukrainska Pravda'

Here are a few quotes:

"Today the EU finds itself before the question - Will it be possible to conclude an Association Agreement with Ukraine before the end of the year..and this at a moment when serious doubts have sprung up in the EU whether the Ukrainian leadership is truly sincere in its statements on European integration? Doubts are growing daily...

Trials and increased application of arrests of former members of government, are just the tip of the iceberg...other concerns are daily being added: pressure on enterprises from security organs, searches of lawyers' offices, pre-trial detentions, fabricated trials, placement of loyalists into all possible positions etc.

Germany and its partners cannot close its eyes to the development of such events.

All the major political forces in Ukraine wish to conclude an Association Agreement. But those who know the European Union can see that desire itself is not enough to open the way to an Agreement...

If the leadership of Ukraine continually treats with contempt the concerns of the EU and leading European politicians then the country cannot count on success in the EU. This applies both to Kyiv and to other European capitals.

Only after the decision of the Council of Ministers, that is by a consensus of all members of the European Union, will it be ready to sign the Association Agreement and implement procedures for ratification in its parliaments.

For this [to happen] there should again be a dominant conviction that Ukraine is really striding along the path of European integration. And there should be clear steps [made] in this direction.
Every Ukrainian should understand: the path to the EU along which Ukraine will either set out or not set out, entirely and totally depends on the Ukrainian authorities and Ukrainian people.
If the Association Agreement won't be signed, the reasons for this should be sought in Ukraine and in the political authorities."

It all sounds like groundwork for failure..

But Yanukovych is doing his utmost to achieve failure too.

Ukrainian parliamentary ombudsman Nina Karpacheva declared yesterday's grotesque 12 hour court session in Yulia Tymoshenko's prison cell, complete with judge in robes, prosecutors and bodyguards was not in accordance with Ukrainian law. "Today any out-of-court session, especially in a investigative isolator cell is a brutal transgession of state law, and point 1 of article 5 of the European convention of human rights." Tymoshenko has been bed-bound for several weeks with a serious spinal condition. European observers have been aghast at such barbaric behaviour too.

EPP Congress Resolution on Ukraine

2011-12-08T13:43:00.003+02:00

EPP Emergency Resolution on Ukraine here

"should any essential and fundamental principle of the Association Agreement be ignored or violated by Ukraine, the EU should develop a mechanism for a temporary suspension of the whole AA"

Will these be just bits of paper?

Because of their inability and impotence in dealing with the looming Euro crisis, the EU may act firmly on Ukraine in order to show they can still 'mix it' and still have 'b*lls. Events in Moscow only encourage such action.

Tymoshenko remains centre-stage..

2011-12-07T17:55:00.017+02:00

This was the order of speakers at today's session of the 20th European People's Party Congress in Marseilles :-

-EPP President/Président du PPE Wilfried Martens
-Prime Minister of France/Premier ministre de la France François Fillon
-Ms./Madame Eugenia Carr-Tymoshenko....

Eugenia Carr-Tymoshenko received a standing ovation for her speech which included a call for sanctions to be applied to members of the Yanukovych regime...[Congress proceedings were streamed live... ]

According to today's 'Deutsche Welle', German experts doubt that the Association Agreement will be signed at the Ukraine-EU December summit.

"[Human] Rights violations in the Tymoshenko trial haves led to a number of EU countries to now being opposed to signing of the Association Agreement with Ukraine. Experts spoke of this at a [recent] conference in Berlin."

In response, a Kyiv court ruled fresh court proceedings could take place directly in the "investigative isolator" cell where Tymoshenko is imprisoned. She is currently bedridden - suffering from a ruptured disc in her spine - too ill to be transported to a courthouse.
[Deputy prosecutor general Renat Kuzmin claims the conditions in her cell are better than in a hotel room. More from f.n. on this horrible man and his boss Pshonka here]

Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Nina Karpachova called the situation "unacceptable" and contrary to European norms and conventions..

What are these sadists trying to prove? They are rational politicians so it is reasonable to assume this premeditated, dare I say medieval behaviour is a signal by the authorities.

British Ambassador's clear message

2011-12-06T22:30:00.002+02:00

I really liked British Ambassador to Kyiv's recent brief, pertinent speech in Donetsk.

Read it here

"....That is why the UK and other EU member states have made clear that, unless opposition leaders imprisoned as the result of flawed trials are freed from detention and able to take part in political activity, it is unlikely that EU member states will sign and ratify the Association Agreement and DCFTA.

If this situation persists, and Ukraine is unable to reap the immense benefits of the Association Agreement and DCFTA, this will be a catastrophe for Ukraine.

Rather than being on a steady path towards greater European integration, the country will risk being stranded in a grey zone between the EU and the former Soviet Union.

It doesn’t have to be like this"

But maybe Yanuk and co. think being in the grey zone is o.k.?

Investigative journalist exposing Ukrainian corruption receives award

2011-12-05T01:24:00.004+02:00

A few weeks ago I posted a blog about 'Ukrainska Pravda's' exposure of corrupt links between First Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Klyuyev and president Yanukovych himself.

Their articles reveal how First Vice Prime Minister Klyuyev allocated state aid from the Ukrainian budget for the benefit of his Austrian-registered 'Activ Solar' business.

The final owner of the Viennese 'Activ Solar' is a Liechtenstein-registered trust that is the nominal owner of Yanukovych's 'Mezhyhirya' palace and also owner of his extensive hunting grounds and lodges in Sukholuchchi near Kyiv.

Several days ago one of 'U.P's authors, Serhiy Leshchenko, received a prestigious award from the Polish Reporter's Foundation, in the presence of the Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski, for his work.

Leshchenko, in his blog, informs readers that well-known shit-stirrer Mykhalo Brodsky, who now works for Kluyev, has started a cheapo campaign of invective to discredit him and other 'U.P.' reporters..

Naturally Brodsky does not challenge any of the solid evidence produced in the 'U.P' story - is this because the award-winning piece of journalism is all true?

Yanukovych's attitude to life's unfortunates exposed

2011-12-01T19:45:00.003+02:00

From today's 'Independent':

Elton John: On the streets with Ukraine's lost generation

A mixture of intolerance and opportunism threatens to deprive Kiev of the one institution that offers hope to its thousands of young people with HIV

"a searing indictment of President Viktor Yanukovych's attitude to the disease and its victims..."

p.s. Before countries like Ukraine can join the European Union they have to prove certain things: They must show that they treat their people fairly, respect their human rights. and allow them to vote in elections for the politicians they support. They must show their economies are properly run, i.e. their government is sensible about the amount of money it spends and does not interfere too much in the way people do business.

The failure of President Yanukovych and his government to convincingly satisfy the first demand, precisely at a time when they should be "on their best behaviour", is the reason why some of the EU's leaders are reluctant to initial Association and Free Trade agreements at the EU-Ukraine summit on December 19.

If initialling does take place, Yanukovych's conviction that the EU is not really serious about European values will be confirmed. Oppression of opposition politicians, roll-back of democracy, concentration of power in the hands of a tight-knit band of his Donetsk associates will inevitably grow.

If some EU countries are sceptical about the desire of Ukraine to improve its performance on human and political rights or on battling corruption, or if they do not wish Ukraine to become a member of the EU in the foreseeable future for whatever reason, they should 'come clean' on this and stop wasting everybody's time.

In truth, the problem of Ukraine is as nothing for Europe's politicians compared with the massive looming financial crisis in the Eurozone. Its repercussions will almost totally occupy the minds of EU politicians for many years to come.

Apalling treatment of Chernobyl clean-up veterans continues

2011-11-30T23:13:00.003+02:00

One measure of a civilised society is how it treats its elderly, infirm or disabled citizens, particulary those who have served their communities with distinction.

In my previous blog I described how on Sunday law enforment officials stormed and tried to disperse a small tented protest camp in the centre of Donetsk. The 30 or so relatively elderly camp participants had worked on the clean-up after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident. Some of those still alive had been staging a hunger strike since mid-November demanding better pensions. One of the protesters was killed during the police action.

'Unian' reports on how they continue to be scandalously treated. I've loosely translated some portions of their article:

Chernobyl protesters taken by ambulance straight from courtroom

Several protesting Chornobyl invalids are being tried in the Donetsk district administrative court. One of them, the head of the Donetsk Regional Organisation of Chernobyl Disaster Invalids, Nikolai Goncharov, was taken ill and driven away by ambulance.

Donetsk human rights activist Maria Oliynyk said that today, at 15.00, a clerk of the court came to the hunger-striking protesters' camp near the regional Pension Fund offices and handed a subpoena to the protesters ordering them to appear before the court at 16.00. The summons was filed by the State Executive Service.

About 20 disabled Chernobyl led by Goncharov came to court at the allotted time, but were forced to wait until 18.04 for the court hearing to commence.

Goncharov told the court that he was not familiar with the contents of today's subpoena, and said he had still not been handed the ruling of the Donetsk Regional Administrative Court of 23 November prohibiting of their protest action.

He also filed a motion requesting the court adjourn the hearing to a daytime session on any other day, as the current hearing only began after a two hours of delay, at the end of a normal court session. In addition, Goncharov asked for a postponement to the evening hearing because Chernobyl hunger strikers came to court without any lawyer council or lawyer. The court rejected their appeal.

According to M. Oliynyk, Goncharov was taken ill in court, and an ambulance was called.
The human rights activist said that the court would have continued to the hearing but was forced to declare a half-hour break, because the state plaintiffs had not provided the necessary documents referred to in his lawsuit.

Oliynyk described this court trial as: "Cruel maltreatment of the disabled. Bandit norms operate in Donetsk, where courts somehow sit at night. That's how it was when they ruled to prohibit the mass celebration of Independence Day on the streets, when they prohibited all protests, allegedly in connection with the threat of terrorist attack. And the current hearing is also taking place in the dark, " said the human rights activist.

Later another protesting Chernobyl invalid was also taken away by ambulance.

"This is inhuman, brutal treatment of disabled people who had to wait a long time, standing against a wall in the courtroom," said witnesses to the event.

Yanukovych blunders on...

2011-11-28T22:40:00.004+02:00

Yesterday law enforment officials stormed and dispersed a small tented protest camp in the centre of Donetsk. The 30 or so relatively elderly camp participants had worked on the clean-up after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident. They had been staging a hunger strike since mid-November demanding better pensions.

Tragically one of them, 70-year-old Hennadiy Konoplyov, died during the camp dispersal operation. The circumstances of his death are not clear but witnesses say a number of 'heavies' burst into their tent, doused their stove with water, then toppled the tents. The victim may have been trampled, or may have suffered a heart attack as a result of inhaling noxious fumes .

Check out this report entitled "Is this the saddest Occupy in the world? Desperate Chernobyl survivors huddle in one tent in protest against pensions", from the popular British 'Daily Mail' newspaper.

Iryna Stohrin, in her 'RadioSvoboda' blog exposes the cynical hypocrisy of Yanukovych and his thuggish 'sylovyky'.

In April 2005 the Kyiv City Council obtained an injunction banning a pro-Yanukovych tent protest [he was then in opposition] which was taking place in a central Kyiv park. The camp comprised about 150 tents and was causing great inconvenience to the park's regular users. The court's decision was ignored...

In April 2007 Party of Regions and its political supporters set up a large 'tent city' with military-style tents capable of housing many hundreds of demonstrators in Independence Square in the centre of Kyiv. Yanukovych himself visited and addressed the meetings which were held there. [Check out video at the 'RadioSvoboda' link above.] No-one interfered with this protest despite major damage caused to the Square's infrastructure.

Now Yanukovych is in power normal rules do not apply.

At a joint press conference with Polish president Komorowski, the Ukrainian president said: "I have recently heard a lot of comments from the lawyers of former Prime Minister Tymoshenko regarding Tymoshenko's detention in prison, and I have given instructions to all agencies that are dealing with this issue to create the conditions that are currently envisaged at the European level. The issue concerns medical treatment, examination and detention."

What I suppose he meant to say was "...I have given instructions to all agencies dealing with this issue to create conditions for Tymoshenko that are up to current European standards .."

Is it fair to assume, therefore that had Yanukovych's visitor, president Komorowski, not raised this issue, that twice-PM Tymoshenko, arguably the most famous Ukrainian in the world, would still subjected to maltreatment?

Does not all of the above only confirm the opinion some Europeans already have about the Ukrainian authorities? [see previous blog]

Is sadistic too strong a word?

2011-11-27T00:00:00.010+02:00

I wrote several days ago about the brutal treatment which Yulia Tymoshenko is being subjected to whilst detained in a Kyiv 'SIzo' [Investigative Isolator]. This is a pre-trial isolation unit where prisoners since Tsarist times have been held until they "confessed"... were tried...sentenced..sent to Siberia...executed...etc. Get the general idea?

After being bedridden for about two weeks, she was visited last week by Nina Karpachova, the Ukrainian Parliament Ombudswoman and Commissioner for Human Rights. Karpachova later called the former PM's condition 'extremely serious'.

Early Wednesday morning Tymoshenko was whisked off to a Kyiv hospital were a scan and other examination procedures were conducted.

A report on the reputable 'Radio Svoboda' site quotes a witness who says Tymoshenko was maltreated during this visit. Her head was covered over and even though she could not walk unaided she was not put into a wheelchair but was dragged along.

Hospital administrators had previously cleared medical staff from the corridors so that as few as possible could see what was going on. Staff were warned and threatened with dismissal if they dared to leak any information about what had occurred. Naturally, many of the hospital staff were very distressed by all of this. Other BYuT deputies have since received similar reports from other hospital staff.

Tymoshenko was diagnosed as suffering from a herniated disc - a serious back condition which frequently causes severe back and leg pain. Specialist treatment is normally prescribed.

Question: What purpose does the maltreatment of such a prominent figure serve, particularly when there is world-wide interest in this case?

Answer: To satisfy sadistic urges and to deter the others...

p.s. Those responsible for her maltreatment will say: Well, we offered her a way out, a one-way ticket abroad before her trial and detention...if she was foolish enough to turn it down she only has herself to blame...she knew what to expect...

Foolish...or brave?

p.p.s. Werner Schulz, a German MEP, member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and the Parliamentary Committee on EU-Ukraine co-operation, in a recent article in 'Berliner Zeitung' entitled: 'An immoral proposal', claims Yanukovych offered to free Tymoshenko in exchange for either a €400 million "ransom" [the losses allegedly incurred by Ukraine as a result of Tymoshenko's gas deal], or for a solid EU accession perspective. Another reason for 'turning the screw' on Yu.T?

Intrigue on the chessboard

2011-11-25T02:26:00.006+02:00

On Wednesday, reports appeared in some media that president Yanokovych was going to be in Moscow on December 19th rather than in Kyiv where, on that same date, the EU-Ukraine summit is to take place.

A few hours later the European Union's Delegation to Ukraine said that the EU-Ukraine summit hasn't been cancelled at all and was still scheduled for Dec.19th.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said they knew nothing about the participation of Yanukovych at any meeting of the Eurasian Economic Community Council on that day either.

It seemed that not everyone is singing from the same hymn sheet. Rumours immediately appeared that the president's administration had deliberately put the story out to torpedo the EU-Ukraine summit, or at least to indicate that Yanukovych was not going to 'fall over on his back with his feet in the air' for sake of the Europeans. [What a horrible thought..]

Polish and other European media, without waiting for explanations saw this as an indication that Yanukovych was turning away from the EU and heading north.

Later that evening Hanna Herman, who's job it is to explain away her boss's gaffes, appeared on TV, declaring:

"We have to take into account the fact that right now we are at a critical point in Ukraine's negotiations with the EU and the Russian Federation. And it sometimes happens that in such cases it is necessary to make unexpected moves on the diplomatic chessboard. And sometimes one cannot, or should not explain them...How should all of this be perceived by society? We just have to trust the president. To believe that he is doing everything possible to gain the best possible terms for their country, and that the president will make a step in the direction that best suits the national interests of Ukraine," assured Herman.

[Yanukovych's trust rating, incidentally, is currently about 20%, i.e. 80% do not trust him]

On Thursday Yanukovych took a similar line. When asked by journalists in Sumy whether he will be going to Moscow on 19th December, he cryptically replied:

"..The intrigues spread by politicians, we have become accustomed to them, and this is no surprise for me. I did not give any information where I will be on the 19th. I will be where I need to be."

So who is playing games here? How can these comments be perceived as anything other than negative by European leaders?

p.s. It is not wise to make too many unexpected moves whilst playing chess - your pieces can sometimes drop over the edge of the board...

Demonstratively brutal treatment of Tymoshenko continues

2011-11-23T23:29:00.006+02:00

I liked this blog from well-known journalist Viktoria Syumar in 'Ukrainska Pravda'.

She describes the conditions in which self-confessed Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik is currently being held. He is accused of shooting dead 70 young people on a Norwegian island earlier this year.

The prison where his incarcerated has private individual rooms, a state of the art gymnasium, a jogging trail through the silvan prison grounds, interview rooms, well stocked library, CD's etc. etc. Berivik has his own room and bathroom, and can use all of the prison's facilities.

Syumar compares this to the current predicament of former PM Yulia Tymoshenko who was sentenced to seven years in jail having signed an intergovernmental agreement without the approval of her cabinet [which she almost certainly would have received in any case].

Anders Behring Breivik has every opportunity to prepare himself for trial, and can relax and exercise in order to keep fit and healthy.

After being bedridden for over two weeks Tymoshenko was woken up at 5 a.m. today, driven to hospital for examination [an MRI scan and X-ray], then swiftly returned, according to some reports, on a stretcher. An official prison statement was released: "..no life-threatening pathological changes were indicated..and the condition of her health permits necessary investigations [by tax investigators] to continue..

Prosecutor-General Viktor Pshonka added: "There is no diagnosis that would threaten the life of Tymoshenko, and that means we can continue investigative actions."

In other words, she may be sick and bedridden, but because her life is not in danger, we do what we like..

All of this is far removed from publicly declared statements by Ukraine's politicians of matching European standards, humanistic principles and so on.

"Why is it that those people with power and money at the head of the state machine behave in this way towards a sick woman over whose fate the world is anxiously watching - familiarising itself with the savageness of Ukrainian reality?" asks Syumar.

She concludes: "Yes, they [the authorities] are afraid. But, by carefully hiding their own fear they are trying to impose fear on us. Who wants to be in opposition? Who wants to become a viable alternative? If you do, the same could happen to you...Hence the irrational and demonstrative cruelty. Human dignity does not enter into their calculations. It is the task of anyone who wants to preserve their own dignity to demand an end to the bullying of Tymoshenko, to make a change in the system, to change the system itself."

Your blogger would add that there is cynical calculation here too. Support for Tymoshenko has been muted inside the country - demonstrations have been thinly attended. They can get away with it. But why the hurry with the current investigations? She is not going anywhere for a while is she?

And a message for what Yanukovych considers as interfering, Western politicians too. We do what we like in our own muck heap. We don't care for your soft liberal values..we prefer the strong fist...this is all he knows..

Tymoshenko's condition shames Yanukovych and Azarov to action

2011-11-23T02:29:00.006+02:00

On November 9th it was reported that Yulia Tymoshenko could not move independently or get out of bed because of back problems. State Tax Service investigators continued to question her despite her physical condition. Defence attorneys were denied access because Tymoshenko was unable to leave her cell. There had been reports several days earlier that Tymoshenko was bed-ridden and that her body was covered in large bruises.

On November 14th First Deputy Minister of Health Raisa Moiseenko declared the former prime minister did not require hospitalisation and was prescribed treatment inside the prison. After examination by Ministry of Health officials "medical contra-indications preventing questioning of Yulia Tymoshenko in prison were not found". Prison authorities claimed Tymoshenko had systematically refused to be examined by their in-house medical practitioners, but that necessary treatment was nevertheless being provided.

Despite all of this, last week a Ministry of Health Commission recommended Yulia Tymoshenko undergo diagnostic magnetic resonance scanning in hospital. However, such an examination, according Minister of Health Olexander Anischenko, could only be approved by court decision - i.e. everyone was pointing the finger everyone else [Without a signal from 'vozhd' nothing happens, right?]

Last Sunday Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Nina Karpachova visited Tymoshenko in prison. On Monday, in a TV interview, she called Tymoshenko's condition: "extremely serious" and said she had lost 5-7 kg in weight.

Rather ominously, Tuesday's 'Segodnya' even claimed her symptoms could indicate cancer.
Other reports mention a chronic long-standing spinal condition resulting from an accident that occurred several years ago.

Today, Tuesday, perhaps after an 'earhole bashing' from Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite, both Yanukovych and PM Azarov, [those two well-known sadists - element of fear has to brought to fore..etc.] were falling over themselves to pompously declare everything possible would be done to ensure Tymoshenko receives good medical care.

Even former president Yushchenko got in on the act, saying through gritted teeth that every Ukrainian was entitled to proper medical care, including those in prison...

What a shit-bag....when he was famously poisoned in 2004 those now in power were claiming it was 'just something he ate..maybe shushi..' or it was just a reaction to after-shave'... He didn't trust the Ukrainian heath services either. Has he forgotten? When he was in agony for days it was Tymoshenko who carried the Orange Revolution on her own...without her he would have been been nowhere..what a total shit-bag...

Demand for new commission to examine "Livela" scandal

2011-11-22T00:53:00.006+02:00

In a TV interview the leader of the "Front for Change"political party, Arseniy Yatseniuk declared that the opposition will demand a new parliamentary commission be set up to investigate the scandal-ridden "Livela" and its related companies.

"..These companies did not pay any taxes, and imported goods duty-free into the territory of Ukraine goods, illegally utilising various schemes. And they did this, of course, under the [protective] roof of law enforcement agencies and the government ", said Yatseniuk.

He noted that the temporary parliamentary committee of inquiry established by himself and by the chairman NUNS, has collected a large quantity of material, confirming the involvement of government officials in the allegedly illegal activities of "Livela." "We dug up so much material that there is enought not just for article 365, for which Tymoshenko was locked up, there's enough there for two dozen such articles."

"There are sufficient documents for the Security Service and Prosecutor General's Office to immediately open criminal cases," he added.

"Livela" failed to pay 2.9 billion hryvnias, [$360million]. However, its affiliates omitted to pay 8 billion hryvnia [$1billion] of taxes. These 11 billion were not paid because "honest" Ukrainian courts approved their exemption," he claimed.

"11 billion - enough not to have to raise the retirement age, or to rebuild an entire network for new children's nurseries and village health centres in the country," said the leader of the "Front for Change".

He said he had demanded the names of people linked to Livela's' activities from the parliamentary investigative commission.

"Journalistic investigations in "Ukrainska Pravda" and television channel TVi exposed two names - Volodymyr Zubyk, a PoR deputy, and first deputy prime minister Andriy Klyuyev. I turned up at the commission meeting and they voted to summon Klyuyev and Zubyk to the commission. But when specific names of specific people began to appear, Party of Regions' refused to vote for prolonging the activities of the commission."

Arseniy Yatseniuk said that some of the judges who carried out the decisions [to grant tax immunity], have since died. We need to determine under what circumstances they died, and what happened to the people who carried out these decisions, he added.

He noted that the government wants to hide the names of those involved - to bury the "Livela" case. "We will not let them do it", - said Yatseniuk.

On November 18, the pro-government majority in parliament did not support the continuation of the temporary investigatve commission's activities in the investigation of "Livela." The head of the commission, deputy Roman Zvarych, was interviewed by 'Radio Svoboda' last week. He said the country's law enforcement agencies had turned away their complaints and queries.
------------------
This is such a big case, so much money involved, paper trails all over the place, it will not go away ..and even a hint of "mokryye delà"...

p.s Video in Ukrainian here

British Foreign Office on Tymoshenko

2011-11-21T17:22:00.005+02:00

EECAD

Room W2.72
King Charles Street
London
SW1A 2AH

21 November 2011

Dear Mr

Thank you for your email of 1 November to [Foreign Office Minister] Jeremy Browne about the conviction of Yuliya Tymoshenko. I have been asked to reply.

The UK is very concerned by recent events in Ukraine. The handling of the cases against opposition figures has exposed the extent to which Ukraine is lagging behind EU standards and expectations in the areas of democracy and the rule of law. As the Minister for Europe David Lidington said in the House of Commons on 25 October, "…if Ukraine wants to make progress with its declared objective of closer integration with the EU, it must realise that that involves a clear and permanent commitment to political reform to establish modern democratic institutions." The Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary have both said publically that the UK sees the politically motivated conviction of Ms Tymoshenko as unacceptable.

The UK believes that the best way to achieve reform and stability in Ukraine is to continue their closer integration with the EU. We also remain strongly committed to offering full membership of the EU to European states which meet the criteria. As you state, Ukraine and the EU are at an advanced stage of negotiations for an Association Agreement, which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The UK wants to complete these negotiations to demonstrate the extent of the EU offer to Ukraine.

However, initialling the texts simply means that they cannot easily be reopened; they still have to be ratified by the Parliaments of all Member States and the European Parliament. For this to happen, the Ukrainians must keep to their side of the bargain. Those detained as a result of politically motivated trials must be released as soon as possible and allowed to take part in the political process. We have made clear to the Ukrainian authorities at all levels, including by calling in the Ukrainian Ambassador, that if steps are not taken to find a solution soon, ratification of the Association Agreement will be put in jeopardy. What happens next is down to the authorities in Kyiv.

The UK remains a friend of Ukraine. However, they must understand that respect for the rule of law and human rights are at the heart of the EU and have to be applied consistently. We will continue to deliver these messages to the Ukrainian authorities at every opportunity and watch developments very closely.

Yours sincerely,

Tom Whitehead

Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine Team
Eastern Europe and Central Asia Directorate

Livela exposed,,so what?

2011-11-18T00:56:00.005+02:00

This from Thursday's 'Kommersant':

Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry Parliament has found guilty parties involved in abuse of the petroleum market.

Supplies of cheap imported fuel adversely affected the Ukrainian petroleum market.

Interim conclusions by the temporary investigative commission of the Verkhovna Rada investigating preferential imports of petroleum products by the "Livela" company have been seen by 'Kommersant'.

The company's activites incurred losses to the state budget of an estimated at 2.9 billion hryven [about $370 million]. The commission came to the conclusion that the losses were the result of the "negligent" attitude of prosecutors, tax and customs, and has demanded criminal proceedings be undertaken against them.

I have posted several times about this gigantic fraudulent scheme linked to highly-placed officials, including, allegedly, deputy PM Andriy Kluyev. The money was most probably used to fund the PoR's 2010 local election campaign.

Don't hold your breath waiting for charges to be brought....Now had it been the opposition...

p.s. More analysis on the EU/Ukr AA & DCFTA here and here

Was Wroclaw the 'Last Chance' Saloon?

2011-11-17T00:48:00.005+02:00

Attempts to change Ukraine's criminal law, and thereby provide a mechanism for release of Yulia Tymoshenko, fell through in the Ukrainian parliament yesterday. The decriminalisation of the 'Tymoshenko article' cannot now be re-examined again in this parliamentary session.

Yanukovych and the heads of state of Poland and Germany would have been well aware of this at their meeting in Wroclaw yesterday.

The are still one or two hurdles for Ukraine before the Ukraine-EU summit scheduled for 19th December when their Association and Free Trade Agreements are, in theory, to be initalled.

The European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs is currently working on proposals for a final resolution on the Association Agreement in readiness for a vote in the EP early December.

A record 164 amendments to recommendations have been proposed by Euro-deputies, indicating huge interest, and concern, over the current situation in Ukraine - not good news. The Committee meets to vote tomorrow on the final draft of their proposals. Tuesday's failure in the VR will surely be affect them.

As I mentioned in a previous blog, the European People's Party congress is to be held between December 6th and 8th. Their members could make a dramatic statement which will prevent initialling of the Association Agreement.

Yesterday in Wroclaw Yanukovych rather defensively told journalists there is still some time before the Ukraine-EU summit...but the chances of a successful outcome must surely be diminishing day by day..

Was Wroclaw the 'Last Chance' saloon?

EU-Ukraine going through the motions for sake of appearances only

2011-11-16T00:27:00.009+02:00

Today in Wroclaw president Yanukovych gave no hint that Yulia Tymoshenko would be freed from custody and allowed to continue her political activities, as demanded by the EuroParliament recently.

As another snub to the Europeans the Verkhovna Rada gave Yanukovych a present - they refused to decriminalise laws that would have enabled the former PM to be released. All sides know that even if Association and Free Trade Agreements are initialled in December, unless democratic standards are improved in Ukraine, the chances of ratification, particularly in the parliaments of Europe's big beasts, are slim.

If this is the case why continue the pretence? As the EU economic crisis deepens and if the Euro monetary zone crumbles into pieces, as now seems likely, Ukraine's Euro-prospects will be 'off radar' for years. Maybe the Eurocommissioners will come to the same conclusion too.

****
As one observer explains, as his ratings rapidly decline the paranoid president will be telling himself: I cannot risk releasing the charismatic Tymoshenko now - quite impossible. She would be a catalyst for potentially explosive ferment in the current situation of growing unrest and increasing social tension.

Several months ago I wrote:

In mafia circles the capo di tutti capi is usually the wealthiest of the bunch. Yanukovych looks down on his cabinet of ministers, on his close business associates and sponsors, and thinks: "These guys, whom I have known for decades, are so much wealthier than me...they owe so much to me...surely in my position I deserve to be up there with them too, no?" Hence the Mezhyhirya's with gold sanitary fittings in the bathrooms, the helicopters, executive jets, hunting lodges...etc."Because I'm worth it?"

In this excellent brief video on how 'The Family' are increasing their hold on the country, journalist Konstyantyn Usov attributes the following statement to Yanukovich: "If Akhmetov can leave 5 billion dollars cash to his successors, why can't I?"

"The talent for self-justification is surely the finest flower of human evolution, the greatest achievement of the human brain." [From 'The age of absurdity' by Michael Foley]

p.s. newly appointed Ukrainian tax supremo Oleksandr Klimenko wears a 12,400 Euro wristwatch...

Latest Hesinki Committee Report on Tymoshenko Trial

2011-11-14T22:20:00.001+02:00

Latest Helsinki Committee report on the Tymoshenko case has just been posted here:

http://helsinki-komiteen.dk/Dokumenter/LM-Ukraine,III,English.pdf

It will be much quoted in the days to come....

'Die Zeit' on corruption in preparations for Euro-championships

2011-11-14T17:14:00.003+02:00

This article is from last week's bigselling German newspaper, 'Die Zeit'.
[Google translated...sorry]:

European [football] championship pushes for price wooden bench in the Ukraine to $ 79,000

Before the European Football Championship in Ukraine to push their corrupt politicians, construction contracts, cash and carry off the national debt in the amount.

Ironically, Boris Kolesnikov. Ukrainian Vice Premier, Minister for Infrastructure, vice president of football club Schachtior Donetsk and chief organizer of the 2012 European Football Championship in Ukraine. The Ukrainska Pravda newspaper has revealed that Kolesnikov is also involved in the company AK Engineering. AK Engineering as the only bidder to have a ten-million-dollar government contract for the renovation of a sports area in the Palace of Sports Kiev received.

Ironically, Boris Kolesnikov has probably benefited most from the cronyism.
In about seven months, will kick off in Poland and Ukraine, the European Championship. Around 25 billion dollars on the Ukraine for the construction of stadiums, highways and airport terminals to spend. The football event has triggered a construction boom. Of which benefit mainly Ukrainian politicians. Million dollar government contracts were awarded to carefully selected Ukrainian companies - without public tender. At many companies are involved in those politicians who awarded the contracts.

The nepotism that drives costs up. Infrastructure projects are more expensive by far than planned. "There have already wasted billions of dollars from the state budget," says Ostap Semerak, an MP and member of the Budget Committee.

Government contracts without a lengthy tendering
A government decision in April 2010 makes it easy to politicians and officials in the Ukraine, for bribes and blaming each other jobs. Since last year, the Government may award contracts in connection with the EM without lengthy procurement of hand-picked companies. Therefore, there are 9 billion dollars from the state budget. Semerak says, "to award contracts without competition, it makes it easy to steal public funds." This practice was necessary because the previous government under Yulia Tymoshenko was in arrears with the preparations, replied Boris Kolesnikov.

Kolesnikov is a businessman. He owns several food factories and heard according to the magazine correspondent to the 50 richest Ukrainians. In 2005 he sat in jail for alleged extortion.
Besides Kolesnikov, there are other businessmen in the Yanukovich government. The Minister of Economy and Trade, Andrei Klujew should be involved in several banks. Social Minister Sergei Tigipko is co-owner of an insurance group, and the minister for natural resources has - how appropriate - Shares in steel and oil companies.

Also the company Altcom from Donetsk is entangled in the web of politics and business. The company has picked up in connection with the Euro 2012 government contracts worth billions. If in Ukraine motorways, airports and stadiums are being built, it is usually Altcom involved. Behind the company are to politicians and government officials are. The company structure is unclear, it is up to the Central American state of Belize rich.

A prime example of the lack of transparency and corruption is the stadium in Lviv (Lvov). Originally, an Austrian company to build the football stadium for the equivalent of $ 190 million. This was the city of Lviv but too expensive. The Austrians jumped off, the job went to Altcom. Now, the stadium will cost approximately $ 300 million.

Kyiv more expensive than the stadium in Munich
Even the Kiev Olympic Stadium is $ 550 million construction cost of the most expensive in Europe. The Munich's Allianz Arena with roughly the same capacity has cost only 438 million dollars. It was not like the stadium in Kiev, Munich rebuilt, but rebuilt. At the top it drove the city of Kharkov, which is also EM venue. The city government had bought for a metro station ten wooden benches. The price of a wooden bench in the Ukraine produced corresponds to a midsize car: $ 79,000.

Nearly 50 percent of the EM-cost fall of the Ukrainian state treasury to the load. For taxpayers, a tough load. The Ukraine was hard hit by the financial crisis. The country needs money paid off out of the International Monetary Fund and has billions in loans.

But even for the period after the European Championships in Ukraine, there are already new plans. The Lviv city wants to apply for the Olympic Winter Games 2022nd For the project "Olympic Hope 2022" the government wants to spend an additional four billion dollars.

Rewarding a mafia state?

2011-11-13T16:42:00.009+02:00

As I state in my previous blog, it is becoming ever-more apparent that since becoming president, Yanukovych and 'the family' of which he is head have gained a firm control over financial flows in Ukraine and are using it for their own and their associates' benefit.

E.g. in a recent radio interview, seasoned politician Oleksandra Kuzhel [a former head of the state committee for regulatory politics and business, a former National Bank of Ukraine advisor, and until recently deputy PM Serhiy Tigipko's no.2.] described how 'the system' is being utilised to 'screw' small and medium-sized businesses.

She claimed bogus criminal cases organised by the State Security Service, SBU, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the prosecutor's office are making it impossible for many businesses to continue operating, frequently forcing them to sell-up. Even worse, 'the system' demands the business owners' personal savings be handed over to 'close the cases' against them.

Businessmen are made 'offers they cannot refuse'. If they fail to co-operate they are put in jail and their property confiscated. After half a year they are released, but their property has gone..."Such a system is now operating", says Kuzhel.

Another observer, writing in the respectable 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' says the civil servants and others who do the pressing at the lower, or 'business end' of the pyramid, previously transferred 60-70% upward. Under the new system, practically nothing is left for them at all...they are being squeezed too...

No wonder 200,000 businessmen are planning a general strike on December 1st, despite threats of criminal cases directed at their organisers if they 'kick up a fuss'..

Hardly a week goes by without ever more major fraudulent schemes being exposed. In the current edition of 'D.T' Serhiy Kuyun reveals how, over a period of just three months this year, about 300,000 tons of diesel and gasoline were imported into Ukraine via the Crimean port of Feodosia. Less than half of this was subjected to import duties, resulting in a huge loss to the state [and big profits for illegal retailers]. In the second half of 2010, according to customs records, not one tonne of gasoline was imported through the port, yet state railway company 'UkrZalznytsya's records show over 50 trainloads of fuel, 127,000 tons were delivered to various regional fuel depots. The impact on domestic refineries of all of this illicit importation is obviously enormous.

Such massive fraud schemes must surely be sanctioned by the biggest bananas in the land - exposing as nonsense the sincerity of their persecution of Yulia Tymoshenko on alleged tax evasion charges in the mid-nineties.

Ukrainian negotiators are insisting a clear perspective of eventual admission into the EU be provided in the soon-to-be initialled Association and Free Trade Agreements. How can this be given to a country well on the way to becoming a "mafia state"?

[p.s. The 'Unian' photo was taken during Saturday's Ukraine-Germany soccer match played in the newly renovated Olympiysky stadium. Pres. Yanuk is being kissed by PM Azarov [yuk..] in the traditional manner while Rinat Akhmetov [left] is not looking....[Whaaat?]

Timeline to AA and DCFRA summit

2011-11-12T01:27:00.013+02:00

Reading observations and reports from Ukrainian 'experts' its seems more likely than not that despite great unease in the West, the EU-Ukraine summit set for December 19th in Kyiv will take place as planned and Association and Free Trade Agreements will be initialed, "unless anything extraordinary doesn't happen again"..

[This rather cryptic comment is typical: "I think Barosso and Rompey overdid it slightly, and they understand this, when they altered Yanukovych's visit to Brussels. Unless anything bad doesn't happen, the summit will take place. But if anything good does not happen, the atmosphere will be very cold."]

I think it is worth listening to what former President of Poland Aleksander Kwasniewski, a great friend of Ukraine, said at a press conference in Warsaw on Thursday following a high-power conference where prospects of Ukraine’s integration with the European Union were the focus of discussions.

He mentioned two critical events that will ultimately decide what happens on the 19th.

Here's a summary of "L.B.ua"s report:

Ukrainian authorities, by delaying a decision on the issue of the convicted former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, risk of losing the chance to integrate with the European Union for many years.

Kwasniewski called this a key issue in the signing the Association Agreement and said he discussed this matter with the Acting Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk.

Tusk "very clearly stated that if there is no breakthrough in the case of Tymoshenko and promises are not fulfilled, it is difficult to imagine how the EU-Ukraine summit on December 19th will be successfully concluded."

According to the former Polish president, representatives of the Ukrainian authorities promised in early September to decriminalize the articles according to which Tymoshenko was sentenced.

"Time flies. Suddenly, it might turn out that we have reached the finishing line and nothing has happened, nothing will have been signed, and we will have lost the opportunity (for European integration) for many, many years," said Kwasniewski.

He said that the European People's Party congress is to be held between December 6th and 8th. Their members could make a dramatic statement which will prevent initialling of the Association Agreement.

[Note: Over 1000 delegates from 39 countries have been invited to participate at the Marseille Congress, including EPP's 17 EU heads of state and government: Nicolas SARKOZY (France), Angela MERKEL (Germany), Donald TUSK (Poland - EU Council Presidency), Jean-Claude JUNCKER (Luxembourg - President of the Eurogroup), Traian BASESCU (Romania), Viktor ORBÁN (Hungary), Fredrik REINFELDT (Sweden), Yves LETERME (Belgium), Enda KENNY (Ireland), Silvio BERLUSCONI (Italy), Valdis DOMBROVSKIS (Latvia), Boyko BORISOV (Bulgaria), Lawrence GONZI (Malta), Andrius KUBILIUS (Lithuania), Iveta RADICOVÁ (Slovakia), Jyrki KATAINEN (Finland), and Pedro PASSOS COELHO (Portugal).

Tymoshenko has been officially invited too.]

Kwasniewski added that the Polish authorities are nevertheless planning to make every effort to ensure that the agreement was initialed at the December summit, and noted that the Tymoshenko case will be the subject of discussions between President Yanukovych and his Polish counterpart Bronislaw Komorowski [as well as other dignitaries] when they meet in Wroclaw on 15th November.

p.s. I can recommend 'Mafia State' by Luke Harding, a former British newspaper correspondent to Moscow. Perhaps the best chapters are on Russia's new bourgeoisie, and on Wikileaks.

A senior Spanish prosecutor, Jose "Pepe" Grinda Gonzales, told the US Embassy in Madrid in January last year that Russia, Belarus and Chechnya had become virtual "mafia states" - hence the title of the book.

According to a classified cable, Grinda Gonzales predicted Ukraine will become a mafia state too....

Nothing Yanukovych has done since becoming president has made this assertion less credible [see previous blog on how the grip of 'the family' is now almost complete].

The "system" - National Bank of Ukraine - State Tax Service - Ministry of Internal Affairs [i.e. law enforcement] -Prosecutor's Office - the Justice system, is working very efficiently. Tax revenues are up 50% on last year but are, to a large degree being spent on major capital projects gained via fixed tenders by opaque off-shore companies that are almost certainly linked to the highest officials in the land. In order to have a 'hassle-free' existence, enterprises are ever-more frequently 'urged' to use external auditors that have also become, de-facto, part of "the system".
I hope European leaders bear this in mind in the next few weeks.

'Yanukovych's boys' take ever-firmer grip of power

2011-11-08T23:29:00.006+02:00

In yesterday's government reshuffle former chairman of the State Tax Service, Vitaliy Zakharchenko, 48, was appointed Interior Minister of Ukraine, replacing Anatoliy Mohilyov.

Mohilyov, in a sideways move, takes the place of recently-deceased Vasyl Dzharty as supremo of Crimea. Both Mohilyov and Dzharty came to prominence in the murky bad old days in Donbas - crocodiles from the past.

31-year old Oleksandr Klimenko replaces his former boss Zakharchenko as head of the Tax Service.

Klimenko and Zakharchenko also come from Donbas, and are considered to be close to president Yanukovych's older son - big-shot businessman, Oleksandr.

Rinat Akhmetov's big-selling 'Segodnya' reports the story thus:

"An 'undercover coup d'etat' is taking place in the authorities"

Parliamentary Deputy Speaker and member of BYuT, Mykola Tomenko commented bitterly: "The president has a clear principle in personnel matters - to take up a position [in government] you have to be born in the Donetsk oblast."

'Segodnya' quotes the usual unnamed 'expert' who claims an significant new trend is occurring in the government:

National Bank of Ukraine chairman Serhiy Arbuzov, Zakharchenko and Klimenko - they are all people of a similar background. All of them are distant from politics and owe their advancement solely to links with the president. This means they are independent of any other group in power.
However, they are also generally on friendly terms with Yanukovych's eldest son Oleksandr -they are 'Yanukovych's boys' and this now seems to be a trend. One might say an invisible, secret coup is taking place in the government.

Last week the president appointed Mykhailo Kostiuk as new governor of Lviv region - also from the same stable. Soon we should expect to see the replacement of many of today's figures in government that are close to major interest groups, with 'Yanukovych's boys. They may also take up other positions connected with security and large capital flows. The president is putting his money on people who he can trust and who are equidistant from business groups. Times are changing.

p.s. Yanukovych visited the Western Ukrainian town of Chernivtsi today. His 30 vehicle cavalcade [gulp!] sped through at high speed and caused two-hour traffic delays.

In the words of an old Kinks song "Paranoia will destroy ya.."
Same true with personnel?

p.p.s. This is a cavalcade..."Aaaay"

p.p.p.s Tymoshenko free for the Christmas hols? - sordid cat and mouse games continue...

Millions spent on one person while nation suffers..

2011-11-07T02:00:00.004+02:00

In the last two years over $25 million have been spent on upgrading Yanukovych's state dachas in Crimea, according to investigative journalist Tatyana Chornovil.

Two new helipads have been constructed near dacha no 3, and also near dachas no 9 and 10.

In response to journalists' enquiries, the presidential administration claims that these structures are upgrades to the transport and communications infrastructure along to Crimean coast and are intended to help develop international tourism in this region. All complete bullshit, of course - the helipads are deep inside the territory of the inaccessible dachas; they are surrounded by high electrified fences and fierce armed guards.

What is particularly annoying is that just 7 kilometers armoured-Mecedes-drive away lies dacha no 11 - which already equipped with a top-class helipad.

Dacha no 11, the "Gorbachev dacha", is where the former Soviet president was 'holed up' during the failed August 1991 coup. It was upgraded last year at a cost of over $5 million.

More millions of dollars have also been spent recently on new furniture, china, interior fittings, and what my dad used to call 'duperelky', as well as high-end gym equipment and on the infamous solid marble massage table and ancilliary equipment which cost $70,000 alone.

Yanukovych and his family already own major property assets on the peninsula and in Donetsk, as well as dachas around Kyiv and elsewhere.

Dissatisfaction at street level is increasing and Yanukovych's ratings are falling rapidly. The seasoned, well respected politician Oleksandra Kuzel, who was until recently Serhiy Tigipko's no.2, commented on the recent protests in Kyiv recently thus: "Tension is increasing..Lenin, appearing in Germany three days before the October Revolution said: I do not know when the revolution will take place..."

Strange way of showing Euro aspirations

2011-11-05T01:17:00.006+02:00

Ukrainian authorities claim they want closer Euro-integration. They have a peculiar way of showing it.

Kyiv's Pechersky District Court Judge Rodion Kireyev has not allowed co-rapporteurs of the PACE Monitoring Committee to meet with former Prime Minister and Yulia Tymoshenko. The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights Thomas Hammarberg had also not been allowed to meet with the imprisoned opposition leader.

Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira, the European Commission’s Ambassador to Ukraine, claims he was invited to take part in the widely viewed 'ShusterLive' programme on 14th October, but the invitation was 'pulled' at the last moment. The topic of Ukraine-EU relations has, not surprisingly, figured prominently in recent weeks on the programme so an appearance by the top EU man in Kyiv would seem entirely appropriate, it would seem.

After the snub he wrote a letter to Shuster again, offering to take part in his programme to present the EU's attitude to EU-Ukraine relations and ensure viewers were properly informed. He complained that no guest on Shuster's programme had done this in a competent or authoritative manner.

Now Shuster, whose programme appears on the state's own tv channel, has told him:
"I think you would agree relations between Ukraine and the European Union have been complicated as the result of the trial of opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, and have become particularly tense after her conviction.

"Leaders of the EU Parliament have made harsh unambiguous statements directed to the Ukrainian authorities. We quoted these statements in our programme. We believe that, it is first of all Ukrainians, and particularly Ukrainian politicians who should indicate their views on relations with the EU, so this means it is an internal discussion."

In other words 'Thanks, but no thanks..'

He did offer Pinto Teixeira an opportunity to appear on his programme in late December, after possible initialling of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.

This all seems very odd to LEvko...you can hardly see the strings..

p.s. The EU's ambassador did appear on Mykola Knyazhytsky's less widely viewed TV show last week.... 15 minute video clip here

p.p.s. Yesterday's protests in Kyiv and elsewhere may have been cleverly gently manipulated to by 'vlasti' to deflect blame away from the president. The protesters' ire all seemed to be directed against the impotent, neutralised parliament... and not against Yanik

Only old and poor protesting at the moment..

2011-11-04T02:57:00.002+02:00

Protesters angry over cuts to benefits and subsidies scuffled with riot police outside Ukraine's parliament building on Thursday. They were joined by squeezed small-time entrepreneurs.

Read more here.

And watch some tv footage of what happened here

Unlike demonstrations elsewhere, most of the protesters in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities seem to be well into grey-haired middle age with their knitted woolly hats and headscarves.

I think it is fair to conclude these folks were demonstrating because they really are desperate...they are at the end of their tether...it is is a matter of survival. You have to really feel sorry for them.

But they present no threat, they did not look anything like a violent mob, poor dears..

However if disaffected youngsters in their late teens and early twenties, the sort of people who normally demonstrate, were ever join them... These things are so hard to predict...

Wake up call for EU

2011-11-02T23:32:00.009+02:00

I really liked this article: "Wake-up call for the EU", from Mykola Ryabchuk.
He predictions on likely 'Belarusization' of Ukraine are entirely credible..

Most EU leaders, in their heart of hearts share this view. They have to make a decision whether to take firm action in an attempt to halt this process. The question they need to sort out in their minds is, is do they do this 'en bloc' in December? Or do individual EU countries take piecemeal action in the months to come?

And which of these will make a difference to the path of the Yanukovych steamroller?

p.s. "The authorities are under the illusion that they will be accepted [ in Europe] even if they do not share these values [of human rights] - they do not understand how deep [this is felt]"...Savik Shuster...last minutes of this behind-the-scenes, off-air 'AfterLive' video clip

UK government's policy on Ukraine

2011-11-01T22:22:00.009+02:00

Watch this Private Members debate from the Westminster, on the UK relations with Ukraine.

UK Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office Jeremy Browne responds to the debate initiator, Member of Parliament Helen Goodman.

It starts about 3 hours 30 minutes into the video, here:

From the Minister's replies it appears that at the moment UK Government is OK'ing the initialling of EU/Ukr Association Agreement in December.....[about 3hours 57minutes into the video clip...] even though he is very critical of what is going on.

LEvko's view is the minister seemed rather uncertain and unconvinced himself in his conclusions. Maybe Her Majesty's Gov't's position is not 'set in stone' on this..

p.s. Check out this peculiar Wikileaks report of a late 2006 meeting between then-PM Yanukovych and the US Ambassador in Kyiv. Two weird stories from Yanuk - is he a fantasist?

He recently purchased an internally heated solid marble massage table complete with fancy accessories, for 600,000 hryven [about $75,000] for one of his dachas in Crimea.

Yanukovych living up to his gangster reputation

2011-11-01T01:19:00.005+02:00

It has often been said that if you want to predict Yanukovych's and his pals' behaviour, look for pointers in the books of Mario Puzo.

Tymoshenko is jailed for seven years - Western leaders are shocked - Yanukovych had given them tacit assurances this would not happen. She is banged up in an old, cold overcrowded Tsarist jail - no 'Hague Hilton' for her.

The conditions in the trial courtroom on some days were described as 'inhuman'. She has been systematically denied individual treatment by her own personal physician.

He tells critics 'we'll let her go..if she confesses and shows remorse'. His advisers spread the same message. Confess, and we'll go easy on you...'

He cryptically suggests to Angela Merkel he will release Tymoshenko, if she pays Tymoshenko's $190 million fine... '

He allegedly distastefully promises Putin he will release Tymoshenko as a birthday present...he can have her as a table ornament..

His associates propose an exchange on a "Shuster Live" show - Tymoshenko for Lazarenko...to the disgust of the show's host.

The day after the EuroParliament demands her release before the initialing of any association agreements, he sends the thuggish Renat Kuzmin, whose name has darkened my blogs several times over the years, out onto live television. Kuzmin, in a brazen riposte to the Europarliament resolution, rushes to declare three additional criminal cases are currently being investigated against Tymoshenko, including one of murder 15 years ago. Why the rush? She will be in prison until 2018..

Tymoshenko is looking more and more like a hostage - You don't want to pay up? You won't let us join your party? We'll hit her with even more criminal cases..

I believe Yanukovych is losing touch with reality. To him this is a power game. All that matters is retention of thuggish machismo..I think he really believes his behaviour impresses his critics..

Read his weird, totally inadequate reaction to Europarliament resolutions. Surely the presidential administration should be issuing detailed point-by-point responses to matters of such importance?

Ukrainian authorities not seeking solution to Association Agreement obstacles?

2011-10-30T23:41:00.004+02:00

As I mentioned in my previous blog the firmest demand made it last week's Europarliament resolution on Ukraine was the insistence that Yulia Tymoshenko be allowed to participate in the country's political life right away.

This has not received much attention in the Ukrainian media, but in his show last Friday, Savik Shuster mentioned it as an aside during Petro Poroshenko's appearance.

Poroshenko is a passionate supporter of Ukraine's entry into the European Union and met most of Europe's 'top bananas' in Brussels and Strasbourg' a couple of weeks ago. He appealed to the Ukrainian goverment not to let the opportunity slip in the previous week's show.

The exchange is near the end of this video clip. Here is my transcript:

Shuster: ..[the Europarliament] demands, insists that Yulia Tymoshenko has the possibility, which is her right, to take part in political life right now and in future elections, so how can the authorities agree to this?

Poroshenko: If you want me to creatively suggest [to the authorities] tens of possibilities [how to do this] believe me, I have them. If you want songs, I have them, but I am deeply convinced that this should not be a matter of public discussion because the authorities know very well by what means they can get out of the situation into which they have driven themselves, and at the same time keep face, [and] at the same time save the face of our European friends and partners...

each of you know those who gave their time, their authority, their wishes onto the altar of Ukraine's Europeanness. And if there was a desire [to do this], then possibilities would be sought, if there is not a desire - reasons are sought. I think that lately the authorities are seeking reasons, not possibilities.

My guess is that there are lots of major businessmen of all colours who feel the same way as Poroshenko, and their disquiet will be growing. How much influence do they have on Yanukovych? Probably not that much...

p.s. Polish foreign minister Radoslav Sikorski, in a TV interview expressed his conviction that although the text of an association agreement with Ukraine, which depended on the Polish presidency, has been agreed and is a success, he is not prejudging anything. "President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, who is trying to raise the stakes with Europe by demanding the re-trial of Yulia Tymoshenko should be made aware of this. When raising the stakes you can overestimate the strength of your own cards," he warned.

Eminent international lawyer Robert Amsterdam recently wrote: "Although Yanukovych has already indicated that the [Tymoshenko] verdict can be reversed, the following day he flip-flopped back to obstinacy, presumably to avoid the perception that he was willing to give in to pressure. With so many conflicting motivations and key interests on the line, one is left with the impression that a high-stakes game has begun, and the main player is way out of his league."

Very true...

Linkage in Europarliament resolution is clear

2011-10-29T00:53:00.010+03:00

President Yanukovych's spokesmen are actively either trying to put a positive spin on Thursday's "European Parliament resolution on the current developments in Ukraine", or are accusing the EU of double or inconsistent standards. They are denying linkage between further progress in Ukraine's Euro-integration and Tymoshenko's release.

The resolution itself is quite clever.

[The Europarliament] "Welcomes the agreement that has been reached on the conclusion of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement; regards this agreement as a solid basis for the possible finalisation of the negotiations on an Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine."

i.e. The details of the free trade and association agreements are all but sorted. and are, one could say, 'ready to go'.

The resolution "calls on the Council and Commission to reschedule the meeting with President Yanukovych so that it takes place ahead of the planned EU-Ukraine Summit in December 2011"

An offer Yanukovych can hardly refuse - so the ball is now definitely in Ukraine's court.

But:

[The Europarliament] "Takes the view that a deepening of relations between the EU and Ukraine and the fact of offering Ukraine a European perspective are of great significance and in the interests of both parties; recognises Ukraine's aspirations pursuant to Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, provided that all criteria, including respect for the principles of democracy, human rights, fundamental freedoms and the rule of law, are met;

Deplores the sentencing of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko as a violation of human rights and an abuse of the judiciary for the purpose of the political suppression of Ukraine's leading opposition politician...[and] insists that Yulia Tymoshenko should be allowed to exercise her right to participate fully in the political process both as of now and in the forthcoming elections in Ukraine...

..expresses concern at some signs of decline in democratic freedoms and at the possible instrumentalisation of state institutions for partisan purposes and to exact political revenge"

Surely, if the EuroParliament insist Tymoshenko be allowed to participate fully in the political process right now..this means they are insisting she should be released right now, otherwise, no deal?

p.s. The official translation of "Deplores the sentencing of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko" is "Засуджує обвинувальний вирок..

I.m.h.o this sounds rather soft; maybe "Vvazhaye zhalyuhidnym..would be better..

Note:

Treaty on European Union Article 2: The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail.

Article 49, referred to in Thursday's European Parliament resolution, says that any European state that respects the "principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law", may apply to join the Union.

All crooks at the top

2011-10-27T22:51:00.009+03:00

'Ukrainska Pravda' has run several articles lately exposing corruption at the top of Ukraine's Mount Olympus. Here's a precis of what they say:

First Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Klyuyev heads a Government Commission for funding investment projects. One of the first decisions made this body on his appointment was to allocate state aid of about $ 25 million to a semiconductor factory in Zaporizhzhya earmarked for the development of solar power plants.

The main shareholder of the factory with a share of 75 percent, is the Vienna-based "Activ Solar GmbH" - it has been linked many times with Klyuyev himself.

Klyuyev's son-in-law, Kaveh Ertefai from Dubai, is a director. His son Bohdan is a business development manager at the company. Amongst its founders is "Slav Beteiligung GmbH" which is owned by the Kluyev brothers on a 50-50 basis. Slav Beteiligung's offices are in the same building as those of Activ Solar in Vienna.

The secretive end-owners of Activ Solar are a mysterious Leichtenstein-based company, 'P&A Corporate Trust', 1 Stocklerweg, Vaduz.

A major portion of Yanukovych's palatial 'Mezhyhirya' residence, as well as hunting lodges and large expanses of forest near Kyiv, are owned by London-registered Blythe (Europe) Ltd which in turn owns 35% of the Kyiv 'Tantalit' company. The director and nominated share holder of Blythe (Europe) Ltd is the same 'P&A Corporate Trust' registered at the same address in Leichtenstein.

Wikileaks reveals that Klyuyev and Yanukovych were almost certainly close business partners in the past. Is it possible they still are? The president 'plugged' the Zaporizhzhya factory in his scandalously plagiarised book, and actively promoted the sale of its solar panels during a recent visit to Greece.

Two years ago Yanukovych sold Klyuyev his Kyiv apartment for a grossly inflated price of $7m.

When Europeans decide whether to grant Associate Membership to Ukraine, or not, later this year, apart from the persecution of Tymoshenko, Lutsenko and others, these matters, as well as those I've recently blogged about, will be borne in mind as they vote.. No-one wants to invite pick-pockets to their house-party.

p.s. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry welcomed today's resolution [which was supported by all factions in the European Parliament] calling it: "A great victory." One PoR deputy called it "absolutely normal" and claimed "the main credit for this resolution should go to president Viktor Yanukovych". A few more victories like that ...

LEvko's view is that the EU's 'red lines' are very clear; all these statements are groundwork for internal consumption intended to shift blame elsewhere when the deal goes 'belly up'...

p.p.s. "One of the reasons the EU has reacted so harshly is they feel they've been hoodwinked twice by Yanukovych," said Andrew Wilson, a senior policy fellow with the London-based European Council on Foreign Relations. "The EU is entirely right to have taken the tough line with Ukraine. And in many ways they can and should be even tougher. Yanukovych's biggest problem in dealing with the EU is his belief that the rest of the world is as cynical as he is.
"Ukraine is always said to be at a crossroads, and because of this miscalculation, now they actually are."

Authorities' brazen greed knows no bounds

2011-10-26T15:21:00.008+03:00

In June this year I posted several blogs about a huge scam involving the purchase by the state-owned 'ChornomorNaftohaz' company of an oil drilling rig but, not content with the $150 million kick-back from that deal, Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko has just pulled the same stunt again.

According to 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', 'ChornomorNaftohaz' has purchased yet another oil drilling platform, this time for $399.8 million. Tenders were received from three middlemen, all of them highly dubious, including from Highway Investment - the middlemen for the first oil rig.

The winners of the tender process this time were the Latvian Rigas Kugu company. They have nothing to do with oil platforms, but are merely a shipyard for construction and refurbishement of small-sized coastal vessels. Their majority share owner is a certain Vasyl Melnyk who is currently entangled in big-time scandals in his home country.

'D.T.' with the aid of the specialist U.S. consultants, 'Rigzone', found there are two oil drilling platforms currently available on the world market which would have suited ChornomorNaftohaz's requirements - both priced at $200m.

The publication consider rental of such a rig would be a far better bet - even optimistic oil production projections indicate that there is no need for purchase of such expensive capital equipment. Anyhow, after the scandal following the purchase of the first oil drilling platform, it would be reasonable to assume that the purchase of the second would be conducted in a 'squeeky clean' manner.

'D.T.' suggest the brazen attitude of ChornomorNaftogaz and Ukrainian ministers in this latest purchase indicates that the president himself must be involved in the scam too, particularly as ChornomorNaftogaz's parent company, 'NaftoHaz Ukrainy' is already up to its ears in debt.

In the light of such stories, the prosecution of opposition politicians looks even-more politically motivated. No wonder the Europeans are so disgusted with Ukraine's leaders whose commitment to fighting corruption is total hogwash.

The kleptomaniacs in the Ukrainian cabinet should take note of how things are done in other European countries. The British Business Secretary and cabinet member Vince Cable who has just been penalised by the taxman for failing to pay up to £25,000 in VAT on time. The £500 penalty was for late payment of tax on earnings from media work and speaking engagements in 2009-10 - the year before he became a minister.

p.s. An excellent, quick-paced television documentary, in Ukrainian, on the above-mentioned oil rig scandal from TVi here

Petroleum scam money used to fund PoR election campaign?

2011-10-25T17:07:00.014+03:00

Nearly a year ago, I posted a blog about a huge scandal surrounding the importation of petroleum products into Ukraine via the mysterious "Livela" company.

A good overview was provided on the osw.waw.pl website:

"Problems of refineries in Ukraine

2011-01-19 Last week, the Supreme Administrative Court judgement passed a ruling confirming the mysterious Livela company’s right to the untaxed import of crude oil and fuels. This company is most likely linked to politicians belonging to the Party of Regions. The Court’s judgement may form the basis for the resumption of the company’s activities; it has led to multi-billion losses for the Ukrainian budget and harmed the profitability of the oil processing industry.

Livela is a daughter company of the secretive Taistra firm; it has been operating on the basis of an outdated Ukrainian law from 1992 on the protection of foreign investments, which exempts companies with foreign capital from the payment of taxes (customs duties, VAT and excise duties). Although the act expired in 2003, the next year Taistra managed to obtain a judgement from the Court which preserved its tax breaks. Livela worked actively from August to November 2010 to rapidly monopolise the market for fuel imports (resulting in an 80% market share). In December, in connection with a investigation by the anti-monopoly committee, Livela ceased its imports.

The losses to the Ukrainian budget amounted to approximately 3 billion hryvnia (US$375m). The import of cheap fuels has caused a decline in the profitability of refineries in Ukraine; the LUKoil refinery in Odessa suspended production in October. On 15 January, the Executive Director of TNK-BP in Ukraine announced that if the Government does not take measures to protect the Ukrainian petroleum industry, production in the group's refineries in Lysychansk will cease.

It is not known who benefits from Taistra’s activities, but it is clear that it must be supported at the highest level of the Party of Regions (some sources suggest that the first Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Kluyev is involved). If Livela resumes importing fuels, this could lead to the rapid bankruptcy of the already unprofitable Ukrainian oil-refining industry."

Many more details on "Livela" and "Taistra" here

Now 'Ukrainska Pravda's brave journalists run a story providing strong circumstantial evidence that Yanukovych and his band of crooks had indeed been using 'Livela' as a milch-cow, almost certainly to fund the nationwide 2010 local election campaign.

Amongst their conclusions:

According to the Ukrainian customs data, "Livela" and "Taistra" actively imported fuel in 2004, 2007 and 2010, respectively. Viktor Yanukovych was either prime minister or president during these years,

In the summer of 2010, when the Party of Regions began to prepare for country-wide local elections the PoR headquarters were headed by First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Andriy Klyuyev.

"Taistra" is linked, via PoR parliamentary deputy Volodymyr Zubyk, to a big-time property developer 'InterHalBud' which has probably been used, in turn, to 'legalise' 'Taystra's liquid assets - converting them into high-rise residences and other buildings. Zubyk has previously been associated with Klyuyev.

According to the Ukrainian customs data, "Livela" started to import fuel to Ukraine again in August 2010. A month later the electoral campaign for election of deputies and heads of local councils was launched.

Local elections formally ended on November 3rd. According to the country's customs service, on the 23rd of that month, "Livela" ceased importing fuel to Ukraine.

The 'U.P' article provides a stunning graphic for the last 5 months of 2010 showing the quantity of diesel and petroleum that was imported by 'Livela' during that period and its correlation with the 2010 election campaign... In November 2010 around 80% of the country's diesel and gasoline was imported via "Livela" - in December it dropped to zero.

p.s. Is it any wonder that the EU are wary of signing Association Agreements with party leaders who 'legally' steal money from state coffers to fund their political election campaigns while at the same time they imprison political rivals e.g. for 'overpaying their driver'?

p.p.s. From a recent thoughtful essay "Expanding the EU’s Ostpolitik" by Thomas de Waal

"To these [Eastern Partnership] oligarchic elites the EU’s toughly regulated economy model is, as one Brussels official put it to me, a “Trojan horse,” which could undermine everything they currently possess. Which is why with three of the six countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus—there is currently no prospect of any free trade agreement and in the other three—Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—there is resistance to the proposed Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU. [No more 'Livela fiddles for a start..LEvko]

Viktor Yanukovych’s Ukraine is the starkest example of this duality. The Ukrainian leadership knows that the EU offers its best development model and route out of poverty, but the short-term political agenda—put crudely, the preservation of power and wealth—trumps a longer-term vision. The jailing of former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko on October 11 was a slap in the face to concerted efforts by the EU to encourage Ukraine to look west...."

....If a new Ostpolitik is to have a really transformative effect in these post-Soviet countries, then its central component should be an eventual membership perspective. Those who baulk at this prospect should not just consider the positive outcomes it could bring but also the negatives of a continuing status quo. In the eastern regions of Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, that would mean they remain a continuing source of criminality, poverty, and perhaps political repression, while in the South Caucasus, that means they will continue to be sources of potential conflict and disaster—while in both cases the big western neighbor of these regions, the EU, will inevitably end up fighting the fires and footing the bills." [Hmmm...]

Could anyone do any better?

2011-10-24T01:08:00.005+03:00

On Friday's 'Shuster Live' programme, former president Yushchenko expained why Ukraine is paying far to much for Russian gas. He used a marker and board, drawing complex, and i.m.o. very poorly drawn 'back-of-an envelope' diagrams and figures. For someone who claimed he was 'one of the best five bankers in the world' it was all very unprofessional - terrible white-board work. Has he not heard of Powerpoint?

Naturally all of her enemies claim Yulia Tymoshenko is to blame for the dreadful 2009 gas deal.
But what none of them can explain is how, under the same circumstances, they would have done better.

It seem to me the only way this could be done is if either Putin confesses he bribed Tymoshenko to do a bad deal [solid evidence of this, rather than conjecture would need to be produced], or Putin openly declares that another Ukrainian interlocutor would have been granted a better deal. Either are hardly likely.

What Yushchenko should have said is: if you buy from a monopolist supplier, you always get screwed, particularly if you are one of the world's biggest consumers of the product being purchased.The Russians are smarter, they have spend billions on North Stream - to deny Ukraine being a monopolist transitter of gas....Like the meerkat in this amusing advert says: "Seempels".

Why Tymoshenko is the deal-breaker..

2011-10-20T23:36:00.004+03:00

"The European Union said on Thursday it had reached a technical agreement with Ukraine on a free trade deal, but linked its implementation on Kyiv's treatment of the jailed former prime minister and opposition leader, Yulia Tymoshenko."

Rather than a softer mattress and warmer radiator..pineapple chunks for dessert..hot cocoa before bed....'treatment' surely means release from jail, no?

Yesterday, president Yanukovych was interviewed on television. He commented only once, unprompted, on the Tymoshenko fiasco:

"[As for the] Tymoshenko case ... I am convinced that time will pass - and everything will stand its own place. If she is innocent - the court will make a decision, and this will be the decision of the court. If she is guilty - she will bear responsibility. So I do not even want to comment. This process will, at the end of the day, eventually come to an end."

Tymoshenko, as every man and his dog knows, was found guilty on October 11th and sentenced to seven years in jail for her crimes, so how come the "if she is innocent"?

It seems to me Yanukovych's Freudian slip reveals she is being used a bargaining chip or hostage in the Russian vector/EU vector game, while at the same time her political career is being destroyed - she may well be innocent after all...

Maybe he even admires his adverary. Unlike him and his buddies she did not run for the hills like a timid rabbit, as they did in 2004, even though this was suggested to her by intermediaries..

Some commentators, with the best interests of Ukraine at heart, and out of geopolitical considerations, say the EU should perhaps cast a blind eye onto what is going on in the country and allow Ukraine to sign up to the club.

I googled "Why was the EU founded?" This is what came up top :

"The overall aim of the EEC/EU, since its foundation in 1958, is to promote peace; the values of human rights; democracy; equality; the rule of law; and the well-being of its peoples. These values are the bedrock of the EU’s work and its role in the world....

The European Union is a unique body. No other part of the world has such an organisation whose mission is to bring countries together to pursue shared interests and values."

Nothing to do with geopolitics, my friends.

What 'Der Spiegel' thinks about Ukraine..

2011-10-19T19:03:00.003+03:00

Check out:

"Ukraine Retreats to a Dark Past"

"Ukraine May Soon Have Pariah Status Like Belarus"

Cf. President Yanukovych today claiming: "Ukraine's reputation is gradually growing in the world. We are returning respect, we are returning trust".

Yanuk fails marshmallow experiment

2011-10-19T00:44:00.003+03:00

Many years ago, in the now-famous Stanford marshmallow experiment, children were led into a room, empty of distractions, where a treat of their choice (Oreo cookie, marshmallow, or pretzel stick) was placed on a table, by a chair. The children could eat the marshmallow, the researchers said, but if they waited for fifteen minutes without giving in to the temptation, they would be rewarded with a second marshmallow.

Years later the experiment revealed a strong correlation between a children's capacity for deferred gratification and their success in later life.

As Oleksandr Motyl points out, president Yanukovych could have waited for EU association and free-trade agreements to be signed late this year before 'setting the dogs' onto Tymoshenko. She posed no threat to the president, and the country's organs of power were all under his firm grip.

He would have basked in the glory of successfully signed agreements, and the future would have looked rosy. There would have been plenty of time to 'deal with' the Tymoshenko problem if there were to be any sign of uplift in her ratings.

Playing off the EU against Russia in order to obtain the best possible result for his country makes some kind of sense, but why mess all of this up with the Tymoshenko trial and sentencing?

The man couldn't wait to gobble up the fluffy marshmallow..

Three scenarios from 'Segodnya'

2011-10-18T00:07:00.007+03:00

Today's big-selling, PoR-leaning 'Segodnya' newspaper runs a story which depicts three scenarios "that the West could choose" for Ukraine, following Yulia Tymoshenko's inprisonment.

The first is that the furore will die down quite soon and Tymoshenko will soon be forgotten - the likelyhood of such scenario is 60%, they suggest. The Europeans and the USA will not want to push Ukraine too far into isolation or into Russia's hands, for geo-political reasons, and some EU countries [apparently?] fear loss of business opportunities. As a result, the association and free trade agreements with the EU will be signed. Closer euro-integration will [hopefully?] speed up democratisation processes in Ukraine. Naturally, this is the scenario envisaged by the president and his advisers.

The second is the 'Belarusisation'of Ukraine. 'Segodnya' suggests a 30% likelyhood and claims Germany, France and Italy are perhaps not too keen on closer ties between Ukraine and the EU, because of their relationships with Russia. They could even support Belarus-type sanctions against Ukraine. The Kremlin's position vis a vis Ukraine's would become stronger in such circumstances.

The final scenario, which they say is 'hypothetical', is the toppling of Yanukovych - 10% likelyhood. There is nowhere near a critical mass of dissatisfaction, there is no figurehead to lead such mass movement of discontent, and the USA in particular is not prepared to support any possible opposition forces. Segodnya admits though, that dissatisfaction with the authorities within a significant portion of society is near a critical level.

The latent assumption in this piece is that Tymoshenko remains behind bars, even though Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Brussels today optimistically predicted she would be freed on 18th October".

In your humble blogger's opinion, for what it is worth, if Yatsenyuk is wrong about Tymoshenko's release, the chances of the first two proposed scenarios are 30-60 rather than 60-30....But the fact that 'Segodnya' speculate at all on these matters is significant..

Now if Tymoshenko were to be released...

Update - WSJ report president Yanukovych told them he has given her the 'thumbs down'...
European leaders will interpret his declaration as a snub and i.m.o. will respond robustly..
Similar from Bloomberg.

Make or break week for Ukraine?

2011-10-16T22:45:00.003+03:00

From regular 'Economist' commenter "Didomyk":

Oct 14th 2011 7:12 GMT .
Ukraine's future relations with the West and specifically with EU, as well as with Putin's Russia, will be shaped by the results of four significant events that are scheduled over the next week or so:

(1)Yanukovych will meet Russia's President Medvedev in Donetsk on Oct. 18th [Ukrainian-Russian Inter-regional Economic Forum..LEvko] for further talks on his attempt to get lower prices for Russian gas. Will Russia show more flexibility both in terms of gas pricing (now tied to crude oil prices) and in terms of a requirement to pay for a fixed annual gas volume irrespective of the actual consumption ? Will Medvedev continue to link possible reduction of gas prices to Russian control over Ukraine's gas transmission system ? Is there a room for a compromise on Ukraine's proposals for a tri-party control (Ukraine-Russia-EUnion) over the operations of the transmission system over a long term ?

(2)On Oct.18th Ukraine's Parliament will continue to consider changes to the 50 years old Soviet criminal code that remains valid in Ukraine. The main issue is decriminalization of political decisions taken by political leaders who were confronted with limited options. In a democratic system their errors in judgement, if any, are subject to the electorate's vote on the election day, not to criminal proceedings of the type Tymoshenko has been subject of.

(3)Yanukovych is planning to visit Brussels on Oct. 20th [nothing about this on prezza's official site yet] hoping to advance bilateral talks on the free-trade agreement. Opinions have been voiced calling for EU leaders to boycott Yanukovych until Tymoshenko is set free and the verdict annuled. Others possible options would be to meet with Yanukovych and to conclude EU-Ukraine free-trade negotiations, while making it very clear that ratification of the agreement will be suspended unless Yanukovych demonstrates a substantial change to his policy of using courts in oppressing opposition.

(4)An IMF delegation is scheduled to visit Kyiv next week to negotiate a resumption of an urgently needed lending program. Last March the IMF froze loans after disbursing $3.4 billion of a possible $15.6 billion approved for Ukraine, because Yanukovych' government did not meet budget austerity requirements.

The willingness of the IMF team to approve further disbursements will reflect a consensus in Brussels, Paris, London, New York, etc. to assist Ukraine in implementing further economic reforms..

Tickets to west torn up

2011-10-15T23:42:00.009+03:00

The chances of signing association and free trade agreements with the EU are rapidly diminishing. If Tymoshenko is not released from prison very, very soon, the agreements will not be signed and the country's hopes for closer ties with Europe will be in tatters.

Watching last Friday's political shows, there was little sign from PoR spokesman of any possible back down and attacks on the 'devil-woman' Tymoshenko were as vituperative as ever. Even if she were to be released, the persecution will continue...she will be be continually hounded, called in for questioning, hassled, arrested...

On the day of the verdict and sentencing of Tymoshenko her supporters on the street were outnumbered by black-helmeted 'space cadets' - why should the president feel threatened?

'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' claims Yanukovych finally decided on Thursday to lock up Tymoshenko despite the shitstorm from abroad. They suggest the consequences for the economy of Ukraine if the country turns its back on the EU, could be "catastrophic" .

As the excellent political commentator Vitali Portnikov says, Ukraine has just entered the Eurasian Sovok world without even signing any documents. Their pass card to the Eurasian Union was Tymoshenko's verdict.

LEvko's tip: Dump hryvnya a.s.a.p.

p.s. Big-selling "Donbass" newspaper asks its online readers whether Tymoshenko's sentence was fair.

40% say Yes - she is guilty
53% say No - it's all politics..

Well over 2000 respondents so far....

Hanging on to the money, above all else

2011-10-13T22:33:00.012+03:00

One curious aspect of Yulia Tymosenko' criminal sentence was the ridiculously huge fine of $188 million that accompanied the 7 year stretch. It was set as reimbursement for alleged losses caused by the 2009 gas contract she had negotiated with Putin.

It's possible that she has this sort of cash salted away on some far and distant shore..but not in Ukraine, and not anywhere it would be easily accessible. So what happens if she does not pay the fine?

Imposition of such a gigantic financial penalty onto a single person seems slightly absurd, particularly as Tymoshenko was not accused of corruption or self-enrichment in the case against her, yet Yanukovych and his pals seem to take a different view. Maybe they think this was her under-the-table 'rake-off' from the 2009 gas deal?

Fuel and Energy minister Yuriy Boyko says the fine money is to be used to pay for Russian gas, [ho,ho, ho..] and Yanukovych himself, apparently raised the issue of a fine with Angela Merkel when the met a few days ago in Warsaw.

There have been a couple of unconfirmed reports that he caved in and agreed to Merkel's insistence he release Tymoshenko, but remained adamant Tymoshenko 'compensate the state' for the alleged $188 million loss. Merkel responded: "We're not in a market here where you can haggle!" and on this their conversation ended. Maybe she took this as a hint from Yanukovych she pays Tymoshenko's fine?

Yelena Bondarenko, a prominent PoR spokesperson, is of the opinion that if Tymoshenko doesn't pay up then she should serve her full sentence. "Decriminalisation is not amnesty...whoever is guilty of damage should either compensate the damage, or serve time".

I think the mercantile approach is revealing of Yanukovych's world view. Values, justice etc. count for nothing. Money and wealth, grabbing it, stealing it, taking it away from enemies, is everything. Just like in the gangster movies - throw them in the cellar until they get the money back.

Anyone who is mega rich in Ukraine [including Tymoshenko] made their money in the 'wild east' period - the early and mid nineties. If the country is to make any progress these people, who entered politics merely to protect their wealth and interests, have to sort out their differences and call a truce if the country is to make any progress.

The big dilemma for Yanukovych is that if he releases Tymoshenko now the chances of him and associates hanging on to wealth they themselves have amassed decreases markedly. It is dawning on them that they could be in big, big trouble in a year or two's time when their political fortunes fade and her's rise..Remember how they all bolted abroad after the O.R.? [This option may now be narrowing.] But the massive anti-Yanukovych bombardment from the West may yet turn out to be counterproductive..There has been a bit of a rally by PoR spokesmen today to protect the 'vozhd' from foreign critics...the UESU charges against her have been reanimated... and she is still behind bars..

Yanukovych today profoundly commented on the Tymoshenko affair thus: "If such a situation occurred in any other country, even the most democratic, no-one would be say anything there, [no-one would] even open their mouth"....but Ukraine is being examined "under a microscope."

Clearly this man 'knows his stuff'.

Maybe 'Lucky' Alex from Belarus has persuaded him being a pariah is not that bad after all..

Yanuk not welcome in Brussels [updated]

2011-10-12T12:38:00.005+03:00

As I predicted in by previous blog...

Today's 'Kommersant' newspaper reports that according to a source: '"Right now there his a high probability that Jose Manuel Barrosso [president of the Eurocommission] will refuse to meet Yanukovych [next week in Brussels]."

They were told by EU representatives: 'We've had it up to here with the actions of Ukraine authorites'.

A Polish Euro-deputy was blunt when addressing the Ukrainian Foreign Minister: 'Mr Hryshchenko, you have betrayed [us] and made a laughing stock of your friends in the EU!'

Prominent German Euro-deputy Elmar Brock claimed: "The visit of Yanukovych possibly may not take place."

Update: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs are getting their excuses in early to attenuate any political fiasco resulting from Yanuk's possible un-invitation, by claiming that: "The 20th October date was not declared officially. We are preparing for the visit and are interested it takes place as quickly as possible. But everything depends on the dynamics of the Association Agreement negotiation process."

LEvko's fears that even if the meetings take place next week, and even Association Agreements are signed, Ukraine's window of opportunity for Eurointegration may have now closed.. The moment may have passed. Any enthusiasm for it amongst EU members and friends has now drained away...

No duty-frees for Yanuk in Brussels next week?

2011-10-11T23:00:00.013+03:00

Amongst the unprecedented tsunami of criticism from European leaders [these from the White House and the British Foreign Secretary are typical] there is one declaration that could hurt Yanukovych more than others.

He is scheduled to visit the European parliament in Brussels a week on Thursday - on 20th October. Elmar Brok, a well-known figure there and former Chairman of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs, says Ukraine must resolve the situation surrounding the Tymoshenko case before his visit. Other Euro-parliamentarians are already talking of cancelling his visit.

Yanukovych has been stringing along his European critics for several months now, misleading them with commitments of a 'soft landing' for Tymoshenko. Now that she has been sentenced he has been exposed a charlatan.

Today's attempts by Yanukovych to wriggle out of his responsibility for her imprisonment, declaring that this is not a final verdict because there's still an Appeal Court to which she can turn, and his attempt to blame an outdated legal system and his predecessor who instigated investigations against her, will not cut much ice because Ukraine's legal system, with its 99%+ conviction rate, is totally discredited already. The prosecutor's office, the Perchersk court..they are all his people.

Yanukovych will be feeling very satisfied right now having eliminated his biggest enemy from the field of battle. All the country's oligarchs must now bow before him -he can become as rich as they are - no other politician can challenge his power. But the concrete step of cancelling next week's visit to Brussels would hit Yanukovych harder than all of today's declarations of dismay and anger from world leaders..bring him back down to earth, at least a little.

Expect Yanukovych in that event to 'cry wolf' and threaten integration eastwards rather westward..

p.s. One commenter notes that the losses from Tymoshenko's 2009 gas deal would be as nothing compared to economic losses to Ukraine - lost exports, lost inward investment, lost remittances from Ukrainian's working abroad etc. that would result from cancellation of the planned association and free trade agreements. But would the Customs Union compensate? Hardly..With Russia everything is a zero-sum game..

EU to respond swiftly to Tymoshenko trial

2011-10-11T00:29:00.007+03:00

Today a spokesman for EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxemburg said: "All the ministers expressed grave concern about the Tymoshenko case. It is clear that in the event of a deterioration in the situation it will be difficult to avoid delays in signing and ratifying the [association] agreement; " adding that the EU is following the case very closely, and as soon as a verdict is announced, they will study it and respond as quickly as possible.

On September 12th Tymoshenko's trial was adjourned for two weeks - until September 27th. Then on the 30th of that month the trial was again adjourned until Tuesday 11th October, when the court's verdict is expected.

Over the last four weeks the court has sat for only four days, during which lengthy concluding statements were delivered. This has given plenty of time for observers to sift through all of the evidence presented in the four-month trial, and thoroughly assess the entire proceedings.

So a swift response is certain...maybe even written already..

The case for Tymoshenko [video]

2011-10-08T21:56:00.001+03:00

Watch this half hour video: "The trial of Yulia Tymoshenko. True story" here

EU prospects damaged already

2011-10-06T23:09:00.007+03:00

There has been much speculation lately that former PM Yulia Tymoshenko will be found guilty and sentenced next week; but by means of an artificially created mechanism of decriminalisation of portions of the law, she will be freed soon after.

This has lead to a commonly held view that: "The authorities will realize two strategic goals – preserve their political image, demonstrate strength and consistency by pronouncing Tymoshenko guilty, at the same time [the verdict] will be softened by the decriminalization after the trial to satisfy the Europeans,"

Commentators who propose such a view are mistaken. The political image of Ukraine's current rulers has already been serious damaged in the West, whatever the outcome of the Tymoshenko trial, because of the barrage of allegations voiced by European leaders and press over the last few months that the trial is politically motivated. The damage is difficult to quantify, but the country has certainly experienced terrible 'bad press' - no question about this. Prosecuting Tymoshenko has delivered little or no political gain domestically either.

The grubby face-saving decriminalisation maneouvres apparently 'forced' onto the Ukrainian authorities will not satisfy Europeans either because everyone is aware the motives for them are completely cynical. They merely leave a bad taste in the mouth.

The reason for the probably permanent damage to Ukraine's current authorities' reputation, and also to the country's medium term euro-integrational prospects, is that the case against Tymoshenko has been fundamentally weak. What should have been a showcase trial has turned into a catalogue of procedural errors, the judge has been biassed, and the defence has clearly not had a fair opportunity to challenge and test the evidence against them. This will all be supported and confirmed in the weeks to come by international monitoring groups. Hence the conclusion that the trial was concocted to eliminate a major political opponent.

However, having taken a pounding in recent weeks from European leaders at the YES conference and at the Eastern Parnership summit in Warsaw , Yanukovych may feel he has already taken the hardest knocks they can deliver. He suffers from the delusion that the EU needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needs the EU so after Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced there will surely be a big temptation to say: 'Not so fast..not so fast...let's see what happens..' and keep Tymoshenko under lock and key. A final option to pardon her will always remain available of course, if the political heat gets too great..

If, and/or when Tymoshenko is released, her priority will be to ensure the West's attention is focussed on former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko's preposterous trial. Then there will be hearings in New York, and in the European court of Human rights..and appeal hearings in Ukraine..

Yanukovych should check out the press frenzy surrounding the return of Amanda Knox to the US, after her recent release from an Italian jail ...and draw parallels... imagine the welcome Tymoshenko will receive the next time she visits Brussels or Strasbourg..or even Moscow.

Now if she was a plain Jane...

p.s. Lots of aerial photos of Yanukovych's Mezhyhirya palace and grounds here
Remember, the man's overriding ambition is to be one of Europe's richest men..
Also photos of Yatsenyuk's and Tymoshenko's houses nearby..she apparently, ahem, 'rents' hers..

Ukies love expensive watches..

2011-10-05T02:06:00.008+03:00

Probably Ukraine's best known television political talk-show host, Savik Shuster, was seen recently wearing a $120k Breguet wristwatch, of the kind so beloved by Ukraine's flashy elites..and also by missus Yanukovych.

He admitted to journalists the watch was a gift, but refused to say from whom...

absolutely astonishing...the man is compromised...but we knew that already..

Another recipent of an expensive watch, Presidential Administration spokesperson, Hanna Herman, seems to have been banished from the PA, and is now standing on the "naughty step". She did not accompany her boss Viktor Yanukovych to New York recently, and was not seen in Warsaw for the Eastern Partnership summit either, even though she had lived in Poland in the past and knows the scene there well. Someone had to take the blame for the plagiarised book fiasco and it was, allegedly, all her idea... Did she have to give the watch back too?

p.s. How far respect for the law in Ukraine lags behind that of normal European countries is well illustrated in this 10-minute video clip produced by brave journalist Dmytro Hnap.

In most countries the roads belong to everyone and can be freely used by everyone - but not in Ukraine. The video exposes the scandalous and rapidly-growing practice of businesses, banks, restaurants etc. reserving portions of the roadside for their own exclusive use by means of unofficial, [but official-looking] signage, and traffic cones. Invariably, hostile security men challenge any normal citizen who dares take advantage of his citizen's right to park his vehicle in such locations. Because all of this is illegal, in clear and direct contravention to Ukrainian traffic laws, one would think it would be easy to sort out, but no...Asking notoriously corrupt police officers to intervene is a complete waste of time. As the video clip reveals, some state agencies, including DAI traffic police themselves, deploy these despicable practices themselves...

If any vehicle dare get in the way of premier Azarov's motor cavalcade in Kyiv, it gets a whack from the baton of Azarov's bodyguards..Meanwhile thousands of the capital's commuters are stuck in public transport for half an hour at a time waiting for Azarov to pass..

When are people going to say, 'Enough is enough?'

Late on comments

2011-10-01T08:16:00.002+03:00

I have been a bit tardy on moderating some comments. Blogger hasn't been notifying me like it is supposed to. We'll see waht we can do about that.

Thanks for the comments. We live in interesting times and none more interesting than in the kingdom of Ukraine. (Kingdom because it is one and no parliamentaty reform is going to change that.)

Cheers all.

"You have to be completely devoid of political sense of smell, not to sense tension"

2011-09-30T23:53:00.007+03:00

Alexandra Kuzhel, deputy head of the Serhiy Tihipko-led 'Strong Ukraine', would not advise anyone to start up a business in Ukraine right now. She said this in a TV interview on Thursday.

Kuzhel is a prominent Ukrainian politician, a sometimes maverick spokesman for small and medium-size businesses, and former head of a government business development committee. She says she voted for Yanukovych in the last presidential elections.

"At the moment the average business is in one of two states. In the first a [criminal] case has been opened against you, and you are somehow, sorting out the issues, so you are not thinking about protest actions. In the other, your business is about to be taken away and you have to save it, and in this case you also will not be demonstrating either," said Kuzhel.

"Both states, however, can not last long, they will develop into something. Tension is growing," added Tigipko's deputy.

'Shock-jock' blogger Oles' Buzynya, who posts on the 'Segodnya' website, and is known for his anti Ukrainian nationalist, anti-'orange' views, [as well as the occasional fist fight on television] posted the following blog after last week's rowdy demonstrations by Afghan war veterans outside [and almost inside]the Verhovna Rada building.

Pre-revolutionary situation?

Last week Afghan war veterans nearly took the Verkhovna Rada by storm. The demonstration by the former took the government completely by surprise.

No political party sponsored this action. The "Afghans" arose themselves, because they wanted to take away their benefits, and you have to be blind not to see how many benefits are grabbed by those sitting under the dome of Parliament and how they are setting a budget for their own benefit.

The authorities feared Yulia, but it turns out that need to fear their own people, tired of waiting for improvements.

After the demonstations a fence has been hurredly constructed around the parliament building.

Buzyna continues: This fence is a symbol of the terrible boundary which now stands between the upper and lower classes. A pre-revolutionary situation has now arisen. But it is still not revolutionary..

Those at the top can still operate as before, separated from the electorate by a fence, and the lower classes in the main seem to have agreed to be patient for a while. But tension in the country is growing, like the mercury in a thermometer when flu takes a hold. The air smells of rebellion.

You have to be completely devoid of political sense of smell, not to sense it. No pickets can not save those who rule us if the economic situation worsens. Kiev includes 4 million new residents. These are people who who have to escape from the provinces that have been devastated over the past twenty years. They have nowhere else to run. They are young, strong and active. As soon as the economic collapse starts, they will take down not only the fence, but also the walls and government buildings.

And then talk that our labour force is too expensive will be redundant - it's our bureaucrats and oligarchs that are too expensive. And if the authorities continue to be more expensive than the people, this could be very costly for the government. And for the people too.

And 'UkrainianJournal.com' reports: Ukrainian farmers soon will hold protest rallies demanding the cancellation of the grain export duties in effect until the end of 2011, Hennadiy Novikov, head of the Agrarian Union of Ukraine said at the annual food industry forum in Kiev on Thursday. He said that the union's council made the decision at a meeting held earlier.

"Farmers have been brought to boiling-point. They decided to hold a rally: strikes and block roads with machinery," he said.

Novikov said that export duties have led to unprofitability of grain production.

p.s. Some excellent pieces of analysis entitled "Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw - fears and hopes"from easternpartnership.org here

Kiryeev's lunchtime phone call?

2011-09-30T17:09:00.008+03:00

Just before midday today Rodion Kiryeev, the presiding judge in the Tymoshenko gas trial, announced that the court would be cleared when the court's sentence was to be passed. Only journalists [their cameras] and the trial's direct participants would be allowed to be present. This was interpreted by many present as confirmation of an guilty verdict.

All that remained before sentencing was a statement of conclusion from Tymoshenko, so the clear expectation was that the handing down of a sentence was soon to take place. A few minutes later the judge turned down the former PM's request for an adjournment until Monday to enable her to prepare this statement, but in response, declared a break until 2.00 p.m.

On return to the courtroom Tymoshenko again asked him for more time to prepare her final statement. Kiryeev's denied her request and proposed Tymoshenko continue with her last chance to address the court....

Tymoshenko retorted: "You have no other argument than that timetable painted for you by the president's administration."

Kiryeev then announced that he would be 'returning to his consulting rooms' until October 11th.

The impression throughout this week was that the court's verdict would be delivered today, so the only conclusion that can be reasonably drawn from this sequence of events is that, most likely, Kiryeev received a 'phone call during the lunch recess from Warsaw where Yanukovych had crumbled under the onslaught from EU leaders...

Had Kiryeev planned to adjourn proceeding until 11th October earlier, he wouldn't have made his statement about clearing the court before lunch would he?

Yanukovych's gas losses in 2004 greatly exceeded those of Tymoshenko in 2009

2011-09-28T23:21:00.011+03:00

While the Ukraine's media, and that of other countries is completely focused on the Tymoshenko gas case, 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', in a sober and well investigated recent article, revealed that Yanukovych and his close associates Yuriy Boyko and Andriy Kluyev, allegedly played fast and loose with Ukraine's laws and made decisions in the Russian-Ukrainian gas trade which cost the country many times more than the $190m Tymoshenko alleged 'screwed up' on.

In the April-August 2004, a Yanukovych-led cabinet of ministers concocted a scheme to repay Gazprom debts incurred by Ukraine between 1997 and 2000 for gas which was consumed but not paid for.

Earlier, on November 15th 2001, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine ratified an "Agreement between the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the Russian Government on additional measures to ensure the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine" (Law № 2797-III), in accordance with Art. 9 of the Constitution of Ukraine, which subsequently became part of national law.

This intergovernmental agreement determined a mechanism for repaying Naftohaz Ukraine's debt to the Gazprom by means of issue of standard corporate Eurobonds with maturity dates between 2004 to 2013. The agreement also defined the initial principal amount of debt - nearly $ 1.4 million. Later the Russian side determined the debt to be $ 1.26 billion, but with penalties, fines and other payments the final debt figure was set at $ 1.62 billion. For Ukraine, this scheme of gas debt repayment was most beneficial. It allowed repayment of all debts to be completed by 2013 in a gradual and predictable manner without worsening the financial situation of Naftohaz Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance appointed The Bank of New York [London] to handle the entire business, and international legal consultants White and Case to provide oversight.

However, as subsequent events showed, the decision taken later by top Ukrainian officials, in clear violation of the law, resulted in Ukraine being saddled with huge additional costs.

Gazprom never fully accepted the intergovernmentally agreed method of settling the unpaid debt, and during the protocol negotiations of August 6, 2002 between Naftohaz and Gazprom, the-then Naftohaz chairman Yuriy Boiko and deputy chairman of Gazprom, Alexander Ryazanov nominated the Russian VneshEkonomBank (VEB) as sole financial consultant in this matter; legal counsellors White & Case were added into the mix. They began to implement what was to be a disastrous plan to change the scheme of repayment from Eurobonds to pure cash.

White & Case warned Naftohaz that the new plan was far from optimal for settling its debt with Gazprom, and that risks were involved. The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Economy and European Integration of Ukraine, and Ukrainian tax authorities all protested too, but Yuriy Boiko and the-then Deputy Prime Minister, Andriy Klyuev ignored all these objections and continued to do away with the fixed repayment plan, which had also included an early settlement of debt option.

Naftohaz Ukraine chiefs then 'legalised' a new mechanism which they had set up jointly with Gazprom and VEB [whose Supervisory Board Chairman, incidentally, was Vladimir Putin].
Naftohaz's board agreed to Gazprom's proposal to transfer all of their debt (the principal sum, penalties, fines and arbitration collection) to VneshEkonomBank, contrary to the previously developed scheme. This was all approved by a resolution of the Cabinet of Ukraine № 1002 of 06.08.2004. But 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' asks the question: Was the law violated when the-then Prime Minister V. Yanukovych, signed the allegedly illegal resolution?

According to this Cabinet resolution, Gazprom gave Naftohaz Ukraine an advance of $ 1.25 billion as partial payment for transit of Russian natural gas across Ukrainian territory for the period 2005-2009.

As a result, Ukraine would have pay for the 5 billion cubic meters of gas per year [the cost equivalent of transiting Russian gas to Europe] for those five years out of its own pocket, in exchange for the cancellation of the debt from the previous decade when gas cost $50 per thousand cubic metres. [A major portion of the total cost of transiting gas is the price of the gas used to drive the gas turbine pumps situated along the length of the pipeline.]

However, in the period between 2006 to 2009 gas prices rose from $ 90 to $ 450 dollars for thousand cubic metres, so Yanukovych's fiddling of the initial 2002 agreement cost Ukrainian consumers an additional several billion dollars...

Tymoshenko's deal, made under duress in 2009, for which she may be jailed for seven years, allegedly caused losses of under $200 million..

LEvko thinks the date of the Cabinet of Ministers' resolution is interesting...there have been many allegations, e.g. in Andrew Wilson's "Ukraine's Orange Revolution", that Russia spent between $ 600 and 900 million on Yanukovych's 2004 presidential election campaign, a portion of this allegedly channeled via Gazprom and Naftohaz..

Update: Excellent analysis from Anders Aslund in 'Moscow Times' on the current Ukraine/EU/Russia situation here

Make your mind up time approaching - East or West?

2011-09-28T13:31:00.002+03:00

Summary of comments made by Mykola Knyazhitsky, Director-General and a presenter of the TVi television company during a public debate on Ukraine's geopolitical choice:

He was sure the euro-integrational aspirations of Ukraine's current authorities is wholly egotistical in nature, intended to benefit PoR's oligarch sponsors. The desire to co-operate with Europe is driven solely in order to benefit their personal economic schemes, and the values and institutions essential to fully integrate into European society are of no interest to the government or president.

Nevertheless, the time has come for the Ukrainian nation to finally make up its mind. The country must decide whether it wants to live under the paradigm of a Byzantine court, as adopted by modern Russia, or strive to develop a European vector with its values of democracy, freedom and justice.

Before making a final decision, the country should reflect on the fact that there is not one undemocratic country in the EU, and there is not one democratic country in the Customs Union.

So...sukhari*, or oranges for Tymoshenko?

*dried bread crusts.. a reference to going to prison in Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine's leading lights try hard in Brussels, but Yanik more interested in the money

2011-09-24T01:09:00.004+03:00

From European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Štefan Füle's speech at conference: "Ukraine 20 years on: challenges for the future" European Policy Center Brussels, 21 September 2011

"There has been a lot of good news about Ukraine in the last twenty years. Unfortunately there have also been some difficult moments, which have brought the wrong kind of publicity. We are living through such a moment, and there are some basic problems which all of Ukraine’s key partners want to see addressed. Its ability to successfully overcome these problems would give a strong incentive to further consolidate the rule of law in the entire region. I know that - with the right will -Ukraine can surmount these obstacles, which are creating so many questions right now between us.

As I explained in Yalta, the on-going trials against opposition politicians appear to be politically motivated and damage Ukraine’s reputation. In order to change the negative picture of Ukraine that is emerging, I urged the leaders of Ukraine to work harder to ensure the judiciary’s independence. They need to show that they embrace the values underpinning political association with the EU. They need to convince us that Ukraine is serious about democracy, the rule of law, and that Ukraine is serious about the Association Agreement currently being negotiated with the EU.

The Association Agreement is based on political association. It involves a clear and effective commitment to the core values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law to which Ukraine has committed itself, towards OSCE, the Council of Europe and also the EU. It is a concern in itself that so many opposition figures are now facing legal action. But in addition, legal experts have criticised the conduct of the trials. Judicial processes need to be clearly unbiased, and it goes without saying that defendants should have a fair chance to prepare their cases. A weak, opaque justice system is a worry to all who value human rights and European values. It is also a deterrent for foreign investment since businesses need to be reassured about property rights and the functioning of the Courts.

But this negative development is not irreversible. Through my close contacts with Ukrainian counterparts, I am convinced that the Ukrainian leaders have understood the gravity of the situation, and are able to turn things around, and choose a different track. Ukraine can clearly demonstrate that weak rule of law is a remnant of the past. Ukraine can show that European values are at the heart of its European choice. This involves fair and transparent trials of former opposition leaders. But it also involves beginning serious work on a comprehensive justice reform. This is an ambitious project that requires determination and commitment over many years. The EU stands ready to continue supporting you in this endeavour..."

Also brief 5-minute video here

In her write-up of the event, 'Lyeviy Bereg's' Sonya Koshkina describes the efforts of first vice prime minister responsible for economic development and trade, Andriy Kluyev, as well as those of Petro Poroshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk , who try their utmost to put a brave positive spin into their presentations in support of euro-integration.

She says the Party of Regions' oligarchs have long been pro-Europe, but the president was slow to react to BYuT's lobbying in European circles on behalf of Tymoshenko after she was charged. Yanukovych failed to react right up to Independence day, by which time opinion had hardened in Europe that Tymoshenko was indeed being politically persecuted. By that time it was too late to change opinions and now the Europeans will be scrutinising events most carefully and critically before Ukraine's future in Europe is decided.

Koshkina's transcript of Fule's statement at the conference indicates he took a much stronger line, perhaps ad-libbed during his presentation, than that offered in the official print-out above.

Her article ends with rumours that over the last few months, whenever euro-integrational themes have been raised with Yanukovych, his response has been: 'Explain, why is this necessary, personally, to me? What will I have from this? In other words: where's the money?

***
In mafia circles the capo di tutti capi is usually the wealthiest of the bunch. Yanukovych looks down on his cabinet of ministers, on his close business associates and sponsors, and thinks: "These guys, whom I have known for decades, are so much wealthier than me...they owe so much to me...surely in my position I deserve to be up there with them too, no?" Hence the Mezhyhirya's with gold sanitary fittings in the bathrooms, the helicopters, executive jets, hunting lodges...etc."Because I'm worth it?"

"The talent for self-justification is surely the finest flower of human evolution, the greatest achievement of the human brain." [From 'The age of absurdity' by Michael Foley]

LEvko wonders...Did Yanukovych and his close advisers really think Europeans would ratify association and trade agreement deals at a time when Ukraine's opposition leaders were in jail?

Only one choice for Ukraine

2011-09-22T23:47:00.009+03:00

I really liked Vitaliy Pornikov's latest analytic article in 'Lyeviy Bereg' so I thought I would [loosely] translate portions:

Winter time has come early to Ukraine. Although it will not be cold for several months we are witnessing the first signs of social unrest at home and tough ultimatums from neighbours abroad...

Europe, and the West in general want little from Viktor Yanukovych - just a bit of sanity.

Our European partners do not want to encroach on the Yanukovych government's authority or on the decision-making mechanisms in the country. In actual fact they have closed their eyes to the constitutional coup which took place after the incumbent won the last presidential election - the Europeans explain all this away as mere growing pains.

But they can not, and will not be able to accept the demonstrative limitations on freedom of speech, and the destruction of the political opposition using judicial levers. We should not have illusions about this.

If the criminal case against Tymoshenko is not terminated the Europeans will not sign anything with Kyiv that would even allow any talk of a conditional presence of Ukraine in the European club. And this is a sound decision on their part, primarily in the interests of Ukraine, and then in the interest of Europe.

Such a decision shows the Ukrainian authorities that if they want to sell the products of local oligarchs in European markets, if it want to crash their cars outside Monte Carlo casinos [as a daughter of one high-up Ukrainian official did recently], and if it wish to continue to sunbathe in the best resorts and rub shoulders in high society circles they will have to give way and stop raping the country over which they have inherited control. This is what they were trying to explain to Yanukovich in Yalta.

And this is precisely what neither Yanukovych nor Ukrainian politicians can understand - that the question of values cannot be compromised, at least not in public.

The people who have to sign agreements with Yanukovych are accountable to their fellow citizens. Elected deputies who have to ratify any agreements in local parliaments are accountable to their constituents and these voters have a clear idea about what is good and what is bad. Europeans have a conscience. That's why what happened at Yalta should be considered a terrible embarrassment for Ukraine.

When European officials were trying to explain to Yanukovych is that on questions of values there cannot be any compromise. Ukrainian policians, who are supposed to be protecting the interests of their European-minded voters, were demanding their Western interlocutors commit political suicide by signing an agreement with a country that ignores the basic values the European Union. This is a clear indication of the political immaturity of Ukraine - its lack of readiness not only to join the EU, but even to get close.

Russia [on the other hand] wants far more from Yanukovich than Europe does - the surrender of the country's economy, its gas transport system, and its strategically important businesses.

Viktor Federovych will not succeed and get Medvedev and Putin to change track. But this certainly does not mean that if Ukraine does not now make any concessions to its European partners and does not 'stumble' into Europe, it will finish up in Russia's 'zone of influence'.

In reality no such 'zone' exists. Russia, cannot come to any agreement, even with its partners in the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan, so what talk can there be about Ukraine?

Russian zone of influence? It's Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, but even there Moscow cannot work with the local leaders. And Ukraine is so much bigger.

Russia simply has no money to sponsor Ukraine, so cannot significantly reduce the price of gas.

Yanukovich absolutely does not need to be a Russian governor of Ukraine. He does not have the technical ability to be this, and his oligarchs will oppose any restriction to their possibilities for trade. Then there is the membership of Ukraine in the World Trade Organisation, and Ukrainian authorities indeed want to head in the European direction.

Medvedev and Putin do not understand this. We are fortunate that during a period of absolute weakness amongst the Ukrainian authorities Russia is run by people of an equally poor intellectual potential who sincerely believe that any normal person considers Ukraine to be merely 'a misunderstanding' which should be integrated back into the imperial structure.

So they will not seek compromise with Yanukovych, they will pressurise him and humiliate him, and he, already considering himself to be a tsar, will fly into a rage and not agree to anything, so we should forget about the myth of a choice between Europe and Russia which, supposedly, the Ukrainian authorities have to take.

We should just support the efforts of our European friends who are trying to prevent our country's slide into authoritarian morass. It's as simple as that....

p.s. On Saturday Yanukovych flies to Moscow to try and get a better gas deal - Medvedev is going to play hard-ball and the chances of success for Yanukovych, as stated by Valeriy Portnikov above, are slim. What some have called the 'Russian vacuum cleaner' is getting harder to resist - but closer ties with the EU would have provided a hand-hold.

Now, according to Ukraine's arrogant leaders it is the fault of the Europeans' that things are going wrong there too..

Former President Viktor Yushchenko recently warned in the 'WSJ' that the European Union's reluctance to offer a clear path to membership puts Ukraine at risk of falling into Russia's orbit and style of governance. [Nothing to do then with erosion of democracy and indications of political repression in Ukraine...of course not...not at all...]

Now 'walking disaster' adviser to the President, Hanna Herman believes that the European Union should offer a hand and give Ukraine a clear signal of future EU membership too.

"We see our future in the European home. In the home - not in the entrance hallway. And if our Western partner will not give us a clear signal that the doors to the European lounge are open, we need to think firmly: what we gain from kicking our heels in the hallway? " said Herman.

She added: "..We hope our western partner will give us a hand, and that Ukraine will accept this hand...Ukraine stands before a choice, and from its choice possibly depends all of the future of the geopolitical map of the continent."

She must have had her head up her arse not to have heard the 'clear signals' in Yalta...and perphaps read too many interior design magazines like 'House and Home' on the flight home...

Yanuk could leave Ukraine wandering in the wilderness

2011-09-21T00:44:00.006+03:00

Steven Pifer, in an excellent article describes a means of resoving the Tymoshenko problem:

"Does Yanukovych now get it? Maybe. His answer to the Tymoshenko question [at the Yalta European Strategy conference] - which was carefully worded and most likely thought through in advance - opened a door to a possible solution by noting that the Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) will examine certain provisions of the criminal code and may decide to remove them. Rada deputies have already proposed dropping the law that is the basis for the charges against Tymoshenko.

This could offer an elegant way out of the mess. If the Rada removes the relevant provision from the criminal code, it would eliminate the grounds for the Tymoshenko trial. Ukrainian analysts and Western diplomats at the Yalta conference expressed some optimism that the door to a solution might now be open—though one skeptic observed that the door had opened to a long corridor. All politics in Ukraine are transactional.

Tymoshenko’s release certainly would not erase all the Western concerns about democratic backsliding. Indeed, EU officials make clear that she must be freed and also allowed to participate in politics, including running in future elections..."

The body language of the government's mouthpieces on ICTV's 'Svoboda Slova', where the topic of decriminalisation of economic crimes [to solve the Tymoshenko problem] were under discussion, revealed their discomfort at having to eat humble pie. Their attempts to place the blame on deficiencies in the country's current laws was unconvincing.

An astonishing statement was made by Presidential Adviser Hanna Herman. She claimed Tymoshenko's arrest, which took place when Yanukovych was on vacation, was not only wrong, but was also an act of sabotage intended to discredit the president, carried out by someone whom she "would strangle with her own hands"...

'Kommentarii' suggests this may be an indication that members of Yanukovych's inner circle are beginning to plot against one another. Herman has had to take the flak for the plagiarism fiasco surrounding the book 'wot Yanukovych rote' - perhaps one of his inner circle was responsible for exposing Herman as the book's instigator. It could be she did not travel to New York with the president this week, as punishment.

[According to Kommentarii it may have well been First Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine Renat Kuzmin, who 'screwed up' on Tymoshenko. For successfully 'putting her away', the black-hearted Kuzmin was seeking promotion as head of the Ukrainian Security Service - the SBU].

Sonya Koshkina in 'L.B' claims:
"The European integration of Ukraine, and with it the entire future of the country as a whole, is under massive question ." This is the biggest and most depressing conclusion of the eighth of Yalta European Strategy conference.

She concludes by saying Europeans have finally understood that key decisions in the country are being made by one person, the president, and that public opinion and the position of the elites are irrelevant to that man. PoR's oligarchs are willing to go along with Yanukovych's decisions, whatever they are, and are probably frightened that he may wish to become as wealthy as they are..

Yanukovych does not really understand why Ukraine should be in Europe. He could have been the Moses who leads Ukraine to the promised land of the EU, but his chance for a place in the history books could be blown for reasons of political revenge and personal greed.

Dark clouds over Yalta

2011-09-19T17:20:00.008+03:00

'Kommersant' newspaper, not known for sensationalist reporting, runs a story today with this heading and first paragraph:

Europe indignant about the [Tymoshenko] case

EU makes future of [relations with] Ukraine dependent on the future of Yulia Tymoshenko.

The annual Yalta European Strategy conference took place in Yalta on 16-17th September. Its main events were talks between President Viktor Yanukovych and European policy-makers concerning the prosecution of ex-premier, leader of the "Fatherland" party, Yulia Tymoshenko.

It is believed in Brussels that Kyiv will agree to a complete rehabilitation of Ms Tymoshenko. However, the EU is preparing a "plan B" whereby the the process of rapprochement with Ukraine could be completely halted.

So, it's getting serious..

Yanukovych tried to 'vybrekhatysya' [lie his way out], but failed...

p.s. Two of the guests at the YES conference were Andriy Kluyev, first vice prime minister of Ukraine responsible for economic development and trade, and Stefan Fule, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy.

Kluyev and his younger brother Serhiy are very wealthy businessmen - they own two executive jets. Nevertheless, Andriy chose to fly to Crimea to attend the YES conference in a specially chartered aircraft paid for by the government [at an estimated cost for the return trip of up to $20k]

Fule flew economy class on the Frankfurt-Simferopol flight..

Former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko has been imprisoned since last December in connection with charges alleging he overpaid his driver by a few thousand dollars..

Tit for tat over Tymoshenko?

2011-09-15T02:30:00.005+03:00

The first reading of the draft report of the European Parliament’s recommendations to the Council, the Commission and the EEAS on the negotiations of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement has been postponed from the 26 - 29th September pleniary session, provisionally until 16th November.

The Tymoshenko gas trial, which had been in its final run-in last week, was sensationally adjourned on Monday, until 27th September. A verdict was imminent and therefore would probably have been announced on Friday 30th September, or more likely, on Monday 3rd October, i.e. just after the European parliament session.

Now after this postponement in the European parliament, a further adjournment in the Tymoshenko trial could be likely, as I suggested in my previous blog.

'Lyevyi Bereg' editor-in-chief Sonia Koshkina reckons it could almost be the New Year before a sentence is passed in the Tymoshenko trial, and claims the former PM can be regarded as a hostage or a bargaining chip, serving to focus both Brussels' and Moscow's attention on to the looming gas war; to be released once a new gas price for Ukraine is settled.

President of European People`s Party Dr. Wilfried Martens met President Victor Yanukovych today. He had been denied access to the incarcerated Tymoshenko earlier in the day.

The big-selling pro-PoR 'Segodnya' concludes an article describing his visit thus: "..the European politician yet again made clear that a decision on the Association Agreement with the EU depends on the court's decision on Tymoshenko.

'Segodnya', quoting a recent 'Ukrainska Pravda' piece, says: "It's difficult to land up behind bars on the "Tymoshenko [criminal] article", media reports -The defendants usually get off with a fine or a 'suspended' sentence....They are preparing their readers for a soft landing for Lady Yu, as they sometimes call her..

Turning point for Tymoshenko today?

2011-09-12T22:02:00.007+03:00

Today could turn out to be a pivotal day in Ukrainian politics.

Since the start of the Tymoshenko trial in June the presiding judge has done his utmost to force proceedings at break-neck speed. Day after day court sessions have frequently started at 9 a.m. and continued almost without a break into the early evening. Tymoshenko's team have been constantly denied the right to call dozens of expert witnesses, despite their frequent appeals to do so. Requests for additional time to prepare the case for the defence have been almost invariably denied, as have requests to present detailed evidence such as Naftogas external auditors' reports.

In a word, it has been blinding obvious that the prosecution, judges and their political puppet-masters hads all intended the trial to come to an end and a guilty verdict to be pronounced just as quickly as half-decently possible.

But, to the astonishment of virtually all commentators, when court was re-convened today, the presiding judge announced a two-week adjournment until September 27: "to guarantee the rights of the defence and provide extra time." Significantly, the prosecuting council who had previously protested the granting of any slack to the defence, offered no challenge to the judge's decision.

In other words a complete about-face..

At a meeting of big-shot 'Regionnaires' recently, the whispers were that most of the talking was about finalising the details of the denouement of Tymoshenko's career. Most media observers considered a guilty verdict and a hefty sentence to be imminent, and the trial to be wrapped up by the end of this week. There had been lots of speculation over how heavy the sentence would be, and whether president Yanukovych would amnesty his deadliest political foe in order to attenuate the unprecendented pressure from abroad. Either way Tymoshenko's political career looked all but doomed.

My impression is that Yanukovych has been told in no uncertain terms by Western leaders: If Tymoshenko's political career is terminated, i.e. if a guilty verdict is announced at the end of the trial, we are not messing about...we are closing the door on any further business...Yanukovych has now been forced to make a stark choice.

At the moment Tymoshenko is not guilty of anything and can be released by a snap of the fingers of sourcerer's apprentice of a judge. But a not guilty verdict would be just too much to bear for the current authorities, so the Tymoshenko trial could be suspended for an indefinite period,,..allegations remaining hanging over her. The pressure from abroad, however, would immediately subside.

A guilty verdict in the Tymoshenko trial immediately after the Eastern Partnership summit in Warsaw, which is to take place September 29-30, reduces the chances of ratification of any EU-Ukraine agreements initialled in Warsaw because the two-week adjournment announced today in the Pechersk court would be regarded as a cynical ploy intended to temporarily deceive EU leaders.

Yanukovych will be at the United Nations General Assembly next week, so the delay helps avoid embarrassment in New York too.

p.s. But there again, who knows what goes on in the heads of the people who got themselves into this mess in the first place? Tymoshenko's political career was in decline, the opposition were demoralised and fractured, European perspectives were looking rosy, and after the Kharkiv agreement, things were set fair with Russia....how did it all go wrong?

It woz the 'mother's union' that fixed it.

Medvedev says gas formula is universal and applies to Ukraine and other countries - and 'Tymo', 'Lutsyk' to be free soon?

2011-09-09T22:00:00.010+03:00

Yesterday president Medvedev of Russia was interviewed by Euronews.

Below is a portion of that interview:

Euronews: Another winter is coming, and once more there is another conflict between Russia and Ukraine about gas.

Dmitry Medvedev: Well, so far there’s no conflict, rather there are differences that might lead to various developments.

Euronews: Could that lead to problems with the gas supply to Europe, for example?

Dmitry Medvedev: You know, I hope that after all the recent experiences our close partners and friends must learn that you can’t torpedo existing contracts – even if you don’t like them, like when our colleagues and partners, the president of Ukraine or the Ukrainian Prime Minister say that a contract is unfair and bad and they won’t honour it.

It is completely unacceptable. All agreements, as long as they are not refuted in court or abandoned by the parties, must be carried out.

And I hope that our partners, our Ukrainian friends will likewise stick strictly to the framework agreement concluded in 2009. As for the future, I have repeatedly said that we are willing to discuss various cooperation schemes with our Ukrainian colleagues. Including advanced plans, based on the integration of Ukraine in the Customs Union.

But they, for some reason, say that the WTO prevents them from being in the Customs Union – but it’s a little strange, as the Customs Union doesn’t prevent us from joining the WTO. But that’s their own view.

Or we could discuss integration based on some other approaches, including our investment in Ukraine’s economy or gas transport system.

If we can agree on this, we will probably be ready to consider change in the scheme of cooperation. But at the same time the immutable principle remains that gas cooperation is always based on a formula. The formula is universal, and it applies to Ukraine and other countries. Talk like “we’re paying more than other countries” isn’t based on anything. This is pure propaganda.

Ukraine pays by the same formula, and pays commensurate with the price paid by other European consumers. Current prices are high, that’s true. But they can also be extremely low sometimes. And then it’s a problem for the energy supplier. So, in summary, I hope Ukrainian consumers will keep following the contract properly, and we’ll come to an agreement about our future business.

It is unlikely what Medvedev says about Ukraine's gas payments is far from the truth. On top of this Yanukovych gave up Sevastopol for several decades to the Russian Black Sea fleet in exchange for a gas discount..

So why is Tymoshenko being charged and imprisoned for negotiating a bad gas deal with a monopolistic supplier under extreme duress, in 2009?

[A most informative, up-to-date concise explanation of the Ukrainian-Russian gas dispute can be read here ]

This article from 'Ukrainian Weekly ' explains the backstreet gangster tactics being employed to eliminate Tymoshenko from Ukrainian politics...What else can be expected from these thugs?

p.s. Interesting and intriguing statement on the president of Poland's official site today following a meeting between himself and president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy on Friday afternoon, during which Ukraine's European perspectives were discussed.

"After talks with President Yanukovych [on Thursday ] I can have a limited, but reasonably, optimistic point of view on the prospects for development of the situation (in Ukraine), also in the context of the Yulia Tymoshenko's case.... We will continue to take actions which should ensure the success of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw, but also [provide] an exit for Ukraine from a difficult situation in which it has found itself, in the opinion of many EU member states, due to the ongoing trial of Tymoshenko, said president Komorowski."

Hmm....Has Yanik made certain pledges or undertakings?

Saturday Update: 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' thinks some kind of 'fudge' or as they call it, 'ersatz -variant' is likely in the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko cases too...

Yatsenyuk's 'Front Zmin' having its balls sqeezed too...

2011-09-09T00:13:00.008+03:00

Arseniy Yatsenyuk's 'Front Zmin' reports the head of their Donetsk oblast organisation, Oleksandr Yaroshenko, was arrested late Wednesday night in Kyiv. They claim he has been taken by automobile to Donetsk, but no-one has been able to contact him.

The party says the arrest took place immediately after a visit by Yatsenyuk to the Donetsk oblast where he 'severely criticised the actions of the president, govermnent, and city council'.

Yaroshenko is the head doctor in dermatology clinic in Mariupol and over the last few years has set up several diagnostic medical centres in Ukraine, so sounds like a 'regular guy'.

Neither the Kyiv police nor the Ukrainian Security Service, SBU, seem to know anything about Yaroshenko's arrest..

If Yulia Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced to a prison 'stretch', as most observers predict , Yatsenyuk, whether he likes it or not, will become 'leader of the opposition' and a most realistic challenger to Yanukovych..

The authoritative 'Kommentarii' weekly considers this shady Yaroshenko business to be part of a co-ordinated campaign, already underway, intended to frighten off Donetsk businessmen who may be sympathetic to 'Front Zmin'.

Yatsenyuk's party have been landing some heavy political blows in the region lately, and 'Kommentarii' suggest that if it were not for his immunity from prosecution provided by his parliamentary deputy status, young Arseniy may have been in the same 'hot water' as Tymoshenko already..

Loosely paraphrasing 'Kommentarii's' conclusions:

..many of the rich 'Frontovyky' [in the Donetsk area] are now encountering problems with enviable regularity to make them realise that it makes not the slightest sense to financially support 'Front Zmin'.. to 'lean on them', but if they persist, [to let them know] their businesses can be taken off them. The [biggest] threat the authorities' tactics pose to Yatsenyuk himself right now is loss of financing... forcing him to consider seeking a"roof" provided by one of the Party of Regions' oligarchs and becoming a PoR-operated glove-puppet opposition [leader].

In other words: 'Front Zmin' are being "made an offer they cannot refuse" ....now who said that?
Two of Yanukovych's biggest rivals, Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, are behind bars.. A third majpr party led by a potential future president, Tihipko's 'Strong Ukraine', has recently 'melded' with PoR. Now Yatsenyuk is being squeezed....you gotta admire these guys...straight out of Mario Puzo..

The book 'wot Yanukovyhc rote'

2011-09-07T22:14:00.010+03:00

So the translator of Yanukovych's latest book, 'Opportunity Ukraine', has now taken the blame for this piece of blatant plagiarism.

After denials of plagiarism by presidential administration spokesperson Hanna Herman and the subsequent scandal that flared up in the international press, someone had to be made the fall guy.

The translator of the book, Konstyantyn Vasylkevych, now admits he omitted references to sources because: "It was necessary to make the book more convenient to read."

LEvko says everyone knows that Yanukovych is not a well-read man capable of writing book of several hundreds of pages. Nothing wrong in that. I recall when Yanukovych had to write a comment in a visitors book several years ago in a European city, he discreetly pulled out a little crib-sheet to make sure he did not make any spelling mistakes...Nothing wrong with that either..
But to claim authorship of a trashy piece of plagiarism shows Yanukovych is losing his sense of reality, and is becoming self-delusional, which is dangerous..And a panglossian book, intended to encourage sceptical foreigners and hard-nosed businessmen to invest in Ukraine, will have quite the opposite effect..

p.s. "The book what I wrote" is the title of a book about two well-loved British comedians - so, strictly no plagiarism in this blog..

Update on oil platform scandal

In late May and early June I posted several blogs [here, here, here] about an alleged scam, exposed by the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newspaper, involving the purchase of an oil drilling platform for hundreds of millions of dollars via a highly dubious off-shore company, all overseen by odious energy minister Yuriy Boyko.

Now Stan Gorin, a director of the off-shore name-plate company, 'Highway Investment Processing LLP', whose registered offices are over a plumber's merchant between a Chinese take-away and a tattoo parlour in Cardiff, Wales, claims he has received no money, has never been in Ukraine, and has nothing to do with drilling platforms, even though Ukrainian National Joint Stock Company'Chornomornaftogaz' has has already paid $202 million into his company's bank account 'up-front' for the drilling platform.

At the time the story broke, Boyko claimed the story had been 'commissioned' in order to discredit him. He promised to refer the matter to the Ukrainian State Security [SBU] for investigation so that the instigators of this 'disgraceful muck-raking' could be revealed.

Its now seems that the matter was investigated - not by the SBU, because they are headed by Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, a financial/political associate of Boyko's, but by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

To date no-one has been named as the alleged [fictional?] commissioner of this story, and 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' has not been told to retract their story..

European leaders not bluffing...

2011-09-03T23:19:00.010+03:00

At an informal meeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of 27 EU countries in Sopot, Poland today, discussions were held on preparations for the forthcoming Eastern Partnership Summit, [scheduled for 29-30th September in Warsaw] where association and free trade agreements with Ukraine could be finalised.

Today, Reuters reported the meeting thus: "European Union members could block an agreement on closer ties with Ukraine if Kiev continues with a "show trial" against the country’s former leader, senior EU diplomats said on Saturday"

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, in a separate press conference, said: “The majority view (in the EU) is that the agreement can be finalised only if the Tymoshenko case is solved..It means having a free and fair trial and abandoning the unjustified charges against her.”

Many similar declarations have been voiced for many weeks now. However, reading stuff in Ukrainian newspapers and listening to Ukrainian TV and radio, so-called experts, representatives of 'vlasti', and maybe even the man in the street, all consider these to be empty threats and bluff.

E.g. well-known German Eurasia expert, Alexander Rahr, appearing in a recent 'Bolshaya Politika' talk show , said the sorts of responses heard today in Sopot are merely 'ritualistic' and declared that in politics, apart from moral, there are also absolutely cynical, 'realpolitik' judgements to be made.

According to Rahr, Europeans big fear that Ukraine could slip back into Russia's sphere of influence and a new Russian empire could reemerge. To prevent this, free trade and association agreements will, sooner or later be signed between the EU and Ukraine. Geo-political interests need to be served even if Tymoshenko has to 'go to the wall'.

LEvko's view is that 'big-beast' foreign ministers do not bluff...they have have made too many big decisions, sent their young persons to war too many times in recent years to have to do this... There is domestic political capital to be gained by standing up for democratic principles...protecting the imprisoned fairy princess from the brutal ogre etc...'Realpolitik' is applied in different measure according to each individual country and situation..

Most likely there will be a verdict in the Tymoshenko trial by the time of the Eastern Partnership Summit, so not long to wait for its messy resolutions ...

p.s. Tymoshenko, in a recent letter co-written with Hryhoriy Nemyria, said: "It is our fervent belief that Ukraine's future lies in Europe. Our government displayed our commitment to this goal by initiating talks for a comprehensive free-trade agreement with the EU, which is due to be finalized this year. And while we do not want Mrs. Tymoshenko's or her associates' political show-trials to deflect Ukraine from its European path, it is worth noting that never before has the EU entered into such a far-reaching free-trade agreement with a non-democratic state. Sadly, this is exactly what Ukraine is becoming."

Cunning plan to save Yanik's face?

2011-09-01T23:22:00.007+03:00

'Kommentarii' weekly claims that according to their sources, Ukraine's ruling authorities will never give up on putting Tymoshenko behind bars. But in order to reduce the degree of criticism from the West, the presidential administration has dreamt up a plan to extricate themselves from the bind they find themselves in as a result of the criminal cases in progress against Tymoshenko and former internal affairs minister, Yuriy Lutsenko.

The plan is as follows: Tymoshenko is to be found guilty and convicted, but Lutsenko is to be released, and, at worst, is to receive a suspended sentence.

In order to "enhance and confirm the objectivity and impartiality of the Ukrainian judiciary", some of Party of Regions' lesser fish are to be caught and arrested on charges of corruption.

In addition, slimeball parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, who has recently been 'fingered' by alleged perpetrator Oleksiy Pukach for commissioning the murder of Georgiy Gongadze, could be made to 'take a fall' for this offence.

All this is supposed to get Yanukovych back into the 'good books' of the West.

Only a thuggish numbskull moron could come up with such a hare-brained scheme, so your humble blogger attaches no credence to this story at all....but there again....

Recently 'Der Spiegel' declared: "As alarm grows in the West over the trial against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, German politicians are threatening to withdraw their support for an agreement that would strengthen ties between the European Union and the former Soviet Republic.."

Everyone's gaze is only on queen bee...

p.s. How ironic that Ukraine's government is threatening to file lawsuits in international courts regarding its gas disputes with Russia, when, at the same time, its own domestic courts are bungling the Tymoshenko gas trial at home... maybe she should be tried in an international court too...what would the verdict be there, I wonder?

Will Yanukovych accept any ruling e.g by the European Court of Human Rights on the political show-trials taking place in Ukraine right now?
...stupid question...

Why cases against opposition are seen to be politically motivated

2011-09-01T02:05:00.007+03:00

According to the pro-Yanukovych "Segodnya'" newspaper the inevitable 'source close to Yanukovych' exposed the president's calculations by claiming:

Polish president Komorowski is not interested in Tymoshenko herself - he is perfectly well aware that by signing a gas contract in 2009, Yulia T. worked for the benefit of Russia as well as for herself in the presidential race, but this topic had to be raised to take account of a strong BYuT lobby the European Parliament.

The only important thing is which argument tips the scales - the need to mitigate the situation around Tymoshenko, or the need to draw Ukraine into the EU because of the serious pressure being strongly applied by Russia onto Ukraine.

For Komorowski the choice is clear already - drawing Ukraine into the EU is more important than Tymoshenko, and his opinion as the current head of the EU is influential, but it is also clear that there are more powerful heads of state in the EU.

However the Polish President will make every effort, because he understands that Ukraine will either receive an association agreement under his Presidency, i,e. by the end of 2011, or it will it be postponed indefinitely.

At the same time, a 'Segodnya' BYuT informant claims that it was made clear to the president of Ukraine in Gdansk that the EU integrates only with democracies, or those countries moving toward democracy; and a country where the opposition leader is behind bars can not be considered democratic.

Neither of these viewpoints are strictly correct - no leader is above the law.

The criminal cases against both Tymoshenko, and Lutsenko, are fundamentally weak - that is the reason why they are seen to be politically motivated. In countries with independent judiciary there would have been no trial in either case, or the trials would have collapsed very quickly.

Furthermore, even though these trials are being carefully scrutinised, they have been conducted from the very beginning in a completely shambolic and prejudicial manner, so any verdict cannot be considered sound.

Polish visit presents Yanukovych with a stark choice

2011-08-30T23:27:00.008+03:00

Twenty years ago, on 24th August 1991, the day when Ukraine proclaimed its independence, your humble blogger was in Warsaw. Poland was the first country to recognise the nascent Ukrainian state and is, even today, Ukraine's 'best friend'. But right now they are dismayed by what they see as the 'roll-back' of democracy in the country and the political persecution of Ukrainian opposition leaders, in particular.

Today president Yanukovych was visiting Polish president Komorowski on the Baltic coast in what could turn out to be a watershed meeting.

In an op-ed piece in one of Poland's leading newspapers, 'Gazeta Wyborcza', a Polish presidential advisor worries: "..whether the Ukrainian authorities are fully aware of the consequences that this [Tymoshenko] trial may have on the success of projects of key importance on the declared desire of their permanent association with the European Union."

He adds: In Warsaw, the great hope is that by the end of the six-month period of the Polish presidency, EU talks on association agreements and free trade agreements [with Ukraine] will be concluded, but developments in Kyiv could tie the hands of Poland on the issue.
Arguments of politicians and countries reluctant to draw Ukraine into the EU may gain the upper hand. If we fail to do so by the end of 2011, talks on the association may be a drag on for many months or even longer.

It seems that the authorities in Kyiv, and President Viktor Yanukovych in particular, should take into accout this eventuality. It would be fatal if they have underestimated the seriousness of the situation.

In this high-stakes game for European status for Ukraine Kyiv should not provide arguments that undermine their chances of success.

Other Polish experts also think Komorowski will be trying to convince Yanukovych to free Tymoshenko from custody, whilst Yanukovych could be asking for advice on how to best extricate himself from the mess his hubris and lust for revenge have led him into.

It's looking more and more as if red lines are being drawn - Komorowski may well have told his Ukrainian counterpart: Back-off the opposition, or you're on your own pal..if you do not, a diplomatic train-wreck for you and your ministry of foreign affairs guys may well be in prospect..

Whatever Yanukovych decides, his democratic credentials have already been irretrievably damaged. This may be his last foreign trip westward for a while..

Paranoid Yanukovych unable to fake sincerity

2011-08-27T00:51:00.007+03:00

Today, Friday, president Yanukovych visited Donetsk to take part in the 'Day of the Miner' celebrations. He gave a speech praising their efforts, stressing the importance of coal to the country's economy, and awarded medals to distinguished workers in the industry.

The dark pall hanging over all of this, was of course the dozens of deaths in recent mining disasters at the local "Sukhodolskaya Vostochnaya", "Bazhanova," and "Krasnokutskaya" mines.
At a pre-arranged press conference the president could only find time to answer three questions from journalists : one from Rinat Akhmetov's TV company, one from Rinat Akhmetov's newspaper, and one from the First National Television channel which was clearly planted to enable Yanukovych to respond to recent comment by Russia's president Medvedev on Ukraine's possible accession into a Customs Union with its northern neighbour.

Yanukovych did not look comfortable, clenching and kneeding his fists, whilst giving his brief answers.

'Ostro' reports that security on the day was absurdly tight. In their words, "Donetsk greeted the president of Ukraine with enormous billboards and empty streets."

"An hour before the arrival of the head of state employees of the SBU and the police cleared people from 'Theatre Square'.

The President's cortege was met by several dozen of miners specially selected for this purpose, and several dozen employees of the SBU. The entire territory and the area in front of the theatre building was cordoned off by police. A brass band played...After the ceremonies had ended, when President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych left the theatre, his security immediately closed the main entrance doors behind him, not allowing any of those present to come out onto the street outside.

People, including those miners that had just congratulated, crowded into the theatre lobby, wondering when they would be allowed to leave the theatre. The waiting lasted about 10 minutes. The door was [then] opened for everyone."

[Compare with British prime minister, David Cameron, taking questions recently from members of parliament in a televised debate on wide-scale riots that took place in London and elsewhere, earlier this month:

"For two and a half hours on the Commons floor, Mr. Cameron took questions from anguished, and often angry, lawmakers. They demanded to know why, on the first nights of the rioting, their constituents had been left to cower in fear in their homes and elsewhere while police officers in riot gear stood back, armed only with nightsticks, under orders not to engage the rioters.

It was the longest inquisition of its kind that any prime minister has faced in living memory. Not even Winston Churchill, often described as the greatest Commons man in history, endured such a protracted grilling." ]

Groucho Marx once said that the key to success in life was sincerity, and added, if you can fake that you have really got it made. It was not one of Yanukovych's better days..

Case against Lutsenko falling apart, but so what?

2011-08-20T23:12:00.005+03:00

The twists and turns of the Tymoshenko trial are hogging the mass media pages and airwaves, whilst almost unreported, the criminal case against former minister of the interior, Yuriy Lutsenko is falling apart.

A number of 'victims' of his so-called crimes have failed to turn up in court. The current minister of internal affairs, Anatoliy Mohylyov, has allegedly forbidden several of his subordinates to appear, fearing they will sing a different tune to that which they sang for the benefit of the criminal investigators.

Three other witnesses have also changed their testimony upon cross-examination in court and no longer consider Lutsenko to be the perpetrator of crimes against their person.

According to 'Unian', Lutsenko openly declared in a statement in the courtroom that presiding judge Serhiy Vovk was being blackmailed. He said this without any challenge from the bench. "Your honour, two criminal cases have been opened against you. You and me are the same. The same dirty game is being played against you as against me. How are we to going to continue this process?"

'Unian' article concludes: "We all understand that today this does not depend upon the will of the peaceloving Vovk...[As] in [all] the political trials taking place in Ukraine today, the judges are far from making the decisions. More accurately - they decide nothing at all."

Lutsenko remains in custody after 8 months behind bars. Tymoshenko is, at time of writing, still being denied access to her own personal physician, even though she claims to be suffering from a mysterious ailment, possibly caused by ingestion of rat-poison?

All liars

2011-08-18T00:41:00.003+03:00

The Kremlin accuses Yushchenko of lying from the witness box today at the trial of Yulia Tymoshenko.

Yesterday minister of fuel and energy Yuriy Boyko certainly lied in the witness box when he laughably claimed he had no relationship to the setting up of 'RosUkrEnergo'. Boyko and RUE are at the heart of the totally corrupt Ukrainian/Russian gas business which has robbed the country's consumers of billions of dollars.

A portion of the loot, has, almost certainly, funded Yanukovych's and Party of Regions' election campaign costs. Much cheaper though to wipe out your political opponents by locking them up in jail.

Yuriy Shelyazhenko, in his 'U.P' blog posts a large spread from Gazprom's September 2004 in-house magazine. The article leaves no doubt that the creation of this company was part of an agreement between 'Gazprom' and Naftohaz Ukrainy' signed by Gazprom's Alexei Miller the-then Naftohaz chairman, Yuriy Boyko .

The article declares: "From January 2005 to 2028 'RosUkrEnergo' will sell gas to 'Naftohaz Ukrainy'", and claims the agreement could be called, "without exaggeration, historical"..

Tymoshenko has of course, been trying to eliminate RUE for years..

EU/Ukraine agreements in peril

2011-08-16T23:19:00.006+03:00

A thoroughly damning assessment of Ukraine's legal system and its political puppetmasters by The Danish Helsinki Committee for Human Rights, entitled: "Second Preliminary Report based on the investigations and trials against former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, former acting Minister of Defence Valeriy Ivashchenko, former Minister of Interior Yurij Lutsenko and former First Deputy Minister of Justice Yevhen Korniychuk", can be read here

Today's 'Financial Times' carries a story about the proposed signing free trade and association agreements with the EU, entitled "Ukraine poses dilemma for Brussels"

The article ends with a quote from Nico Lange, head of the Ukraine office of Germany’s Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung foundation,

"What signal do you send if you include a country into this new form of co-operation when it is one of the worst worldwide in terms of business climate, corruption, has significant problems with democracy and rule of law, and is persecuting the former government?.. What signal does this send to northern Africa or Belarus?"

My guesss now is, on the balance of probabilities, EU countries will kick these agreements 'into the long grass'. Germany and France in particular, have had enough of paying the bills for more fiscally profligate countries in the Eurozone. Who needs extra burdens right now?

Yet more criticism of Yanukovych

2011-08-13T23:36:00.004+03:00

From the new French 'Altantico' news website, [known for exclusive scoops] an op-ed piece entitled: "A strong smell of gas behind the Tymoshenko trial":

"[Yulia Tymoshenko], the former prime minister in 2009 put an end to the role of RosUkrEnergo as an intermediary in the gas sector, thus closing the valve feeding the Russian Semyon Mogilevych and the Party of Regions of President Viktor Yanukovych via Dmytro Firtash and Ivan Fursin.... The prosecutor handling the case, said on his appointment in November 2010 that his sole mission was to serve the president, and the judges have also repeatedly been praised by Viktor Yanukovych.

Europe would be wrong to take these cases lightly. Behind this case not only is the political and democratic future of a country in the immediate vicinity being played out, but also energy issues affecting European supply (Ukraine is a major transit country for Russian gas) and also important criminal issues (Semyon Mogilevich has been sought by the FBI for several years).

Diplomatic condemnations cannot be sufficient, we must now move to sanctions."
Yanukovych clearly thinks that he can 'ride out' the 'shit-storm' directed at him from western politicians and the western media, but it is difficult how. There surely will be a price to pay.

How ironic that, as 'Yulia Mostova of 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' in a brilliant article points out, opinion polls reveal that although Yanukovych is still running ahead of Tymoshenko [by 56% against 44%], against any other candidate, in a straight head-to-head run-off, Yanukovych would lose by a similar margin.

In other words, by eliminating Tymoshenko from any contest he may well be sealing his own fate...

F.A.Z blasts Ukrainian authorities

2011-08-11T23:49:00.003+03:00

One of Germany's premier newspapers, 'Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung' today carries an op-ed piece by Konrad Schuller calling for the EU to impose sanctions against individual Ukrainian government officials and to disrupt the Association Agreement negotiations..

"One thing is clear: the signing of an agreement celebrated with champagne and salmon canapés, while one Ukrainian opposition politician after another disappears behind prison walls, would be a sad comedy."

The 'Economist' calls president Yanukovych: "thuggish, vengeful and guided by the codes of the underworld."

The detention of Tymosenko last week has raised criticism of Ukraine's leader to a new level.